尿素早评：基本面仍有压力-20250814

Report Summary - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The impact of the India tender on market sentiment is gradually fading. Looking at domestic supply and demand, the supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production approaching 190,000 tons at a high level. The inventory accumulation amplitude of enterprises is not large, mainly affected by the increase in port collection, but the inventory of upstream enterprises is still about 780,000 tons. From the perspective of demand, domestic agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season. If export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1] - Summary by Relevant Content: - Price Changes: On August 13, compared with August 12, the futures prices of UR01, UR05, UR09 changed by -9 yuan/ton (-0.51%), -8 yuan/ton (-0.45%), -1 yuan/ton (-0.06%) respectively; the spot prices in Shandong, Henan changed by 10 yuan/ton (0.58%), 10 yuan/ton (0.58%) respectively, while the prices in Shanxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton; the prices in Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The spread of Shandong spot - UR01 increased by 18 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 1 yuan/ton. The upstream costs and downstream prices in various regions remained stable [1] - Important Information: On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1,758 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,772 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,745 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,747 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,757 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 155,653 lots [1] - Trading Strategy: The price of UR fluctuated within a range on the previous trading day, closing at 1,726 yuan/ton. Considering the current situation of supply and demand, if export demand cannot make up for the decline in domestic agricultural demand, urea prices will face a large downward pressure [1]