ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-08-14 05:21Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent increase in shareholding by insurance capital in China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH) signals positive market sentiment towards the insurance sector [6]. - The company is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory in its operating profit, with a projected net profit of 44.96 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 64.9% [3][6]. - The report emphasizes that the insurance industry fundamentals are not as concerning as the market perceives, suggesting that current valuations adequately reflect the pressures on both assets and liabilities [6]. Financial Performance Summary - The projected net profit for China Pacific Insurance is as follows: 27.26 billion yuan for 2023, 44.96 billion yuan for 2024, 38.25 billion yuan for 2025, 41.70 billion yuan for 2026, and 43.83 billion yuan for 2027 [3][10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.83 yuan for 2023, increasing to 4.67 yuan for 2024, and then fluctuating to 3.98 yuan for 2025, 4.34 yuan for 2026, and 4.56 yuan for 2027 [3][10]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 11.4% for 2023, with a decline to 16.6% in 2024, followed by a gradual decrease to 11.9% by 2027 [3][10]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 13.3 for 2023, dropping to 8.1 for 2024, and further decreasing to 8.3 by 2027 [3][7]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to be 1.46 for 2023, declining to 0.95 by 2027 [3][7]. - The dynamic dividend yield is estimated at 3.5% for 2024 and 2025, increasing to 4.1% by 2027 [7].