美国7月CPI数据点评：通胀保持稳定，但核心通胀走高

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. July CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous value but slightly below the market expectation of 2.72%[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the previous 0.3% and above the expected 0.16%[2] - Core CPI increased by 3.0% year-on-year, exceeding the previous value of 2.9% and the market expectation of 3.04%[2] Key Contributors and Trends - The high CPI in July was primarily driven by increases in transportation services, household furniture, and clothing prices, while energy and rent prices saw a significant decline[2] - The market has adjusted its interest rate cut expectations, with the probability of three rate cuts this year increasing significantly, although the company maintains a view of only one cut[2] Economic Indicators - The Michigan University one-year inflation expectation decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 4.5%, while the five-year expectation fell to 3.4%[2] - The U.S. unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, with non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 115,000[6] Core Inflation Insights - Core CPI's rise was mainly due to service price increases, with core services up by 0.3% month-on-month, while core goods remained stable at 0.2%[7] - The rental prices, a significant component of CPI, showed a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, down from the previous 3.8%[6] Risks and Outlook - There are concerns about potential second-round inflation risks due to new tariffs imposed on countries without trade agreements, which could affect inflation expectations and trade prospects[2][6] - The ongoing high inflation and slowing economic growth signal potential stagflation risks in the U.S. economy[6]