“十五五”规划系列报告（五）：从新兴支柱产业看“十五五”

Group 1: Policy Direction - The political bureau meetings from April to July shifted focus towards cultivating "internationally competitive" emerging pillar industries, aligning with the dual core demands of the "14th Five-Year Plan" for technological self-reliance and global economic engagement[3] - Emerging pillar industries are expected to play a crucial role in addressing both domestic challenges and international competition, becoming a significant focus in the "15th Five-Year Plan"[3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" established a precedent for strategic emerging industries, emphasizing the need to bridge gaps in key sectors while fostering new industries[4] Group 2: Historical Context and Trends - Historical analysis from the "12th" to "15th Five-Year Plans" reveals two key trends: continuous investment in critical areas to reduce gaps and proactive positioning in emerging industries to lead global technological innovation[12] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" continued this trend by deploying strategic emerging industries and future industries, focusing on both "bridging gaps" and "nurturing new growth"[15] - Key strategic emerging industries identified include biomedicine, new generation information technology, and advanced structural materials, which are crucial for enhancing global competitiveness[15] Group 3: Future Industry Focus - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to expand the scope of strategic emerging industries to include deep-sea space development and intelligent connected vehicles, with a significant increase in exploration of future industries[24] - Key areas of focus for the "15th Five-Year Plan" include intelligent robotics, marine economy, deep-sea technology, low-altitude economy, intelligent connected vehicles, brain-like intelligence, 6G, quantum information, hydrogen energy, and gene technology[27][30] - The development of these industries is expected to enhance production efficiency, resource security, and technological advancement across various sectors[27][30] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include inaccuracies or incompleteness in data and information statistics, which may affect the understanding of industry deployment and development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period[31] - There is a risk that the actual deployment of emerging pillar industries may not align with current expectations, as future policy directions could evolve beyond existing discussions[31] - The pace of deployment for emerging pillar industries during the "15th Five-Year Plan" may fall short of expectations, despite the rising necessity for accelerated development[31]