固定收益点评：“搬家”的存款还是存款

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "relocated" deposits remain as deposits and do not reduce the allocation power in the bond market. Even if residents' deposits move to the stock market, they still exist in the form of margin deposits, so the overall bank deposits do not decrease, and the asset - side allocation power will not decline [1]. - Credit showed negative growth and relied on bills, indicating weak financing demand. Both corporate and household credit demand was weak in July, with high - frequency data showing a weakening in real - estate sales [2][9]. - Government bonds are still the main support for social financing. However, if there is no new fiscal budget, government bond supply may decrease year - on - year in the future, and social financing may face pressure again [3][4][14]. - The base effect pushed up the M1 growth rate, and non - bank deposits drove the M2 growth rate to rebound. As the government bond issuance pace slows down, fiscal deposits may decrease year - on - year, increasing market liquidity [5][20]. - The bond market may experience short - term or periodic fluctuations and is waiting for a breakthrough. As the commodity and stock markets cool down, the bond market is expected to oscillate in the short term, and interest rates may break through downward as the fundamentals change and the asset shortage evolves, more likely around or in the fourth quarter [6][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Credit Situation - In July, new credit was - 500 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 310 billion yuan. Corporate long - term loans decreased year - on - year, short - term loans were flat compared with the previous year, and bill financing increased year - on - year. Household new long - term and short - term loans both decreased year - on - year, and high - frequency data showed weak real - estate sales and household credit demand [2][9]. Social Financing Situation - In July, new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 389.3 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 9.0%. Government bonds were the main support, with an increase of 555.9 billion yuan year - on - year to 1.244 trillion yuan. Non - government bond social financing growth was weak, and if there is no new budget, government bond supply may decrease year - on - year in the future, putting pressure on social financing growth [3][4][14]. Monetary Supply Situation - In July, the M1 growth rate rebounded from 4.6% to 5.6% mainly due to the base effect, and there was no trend - like increase in the two - year compound growth rate. The M2 growth rate was 8.8%, a 0.5 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, mainly driven by the year - on - year increase in non - bank deposits. As the government bond issuance pace slows down, fiscal deposits may decrease year - on - year, increasing market liquidity [5][17][20]. Bond Market Outlook - The bond market may experience short - term or periodic fluctuations. As the commodity and stock markets cool down, the 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds are expected to oscillate in the short term. As the fundamentals change and the asset shortage evolves, interest rates may break through downward, more likely around or in the fourth quarter [6][23].