2025年7月金融数据点评：信贷需求偏弱，非银存款高增

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a weak credit demand and a significant increase in non-bank deposits, with July's new social financing reaching 1.16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 386.4 billion yuan [3]. - The report notes that the growth of M1 and M2 continues to rise, with M1 increasing by 5.6% and M2 by 8.8% year-on-year [3]. - The report emphasizes that government bonds are the main contributors to social financing growth, with new government bonds issued amounting to 1.24 trillion yuan in July, a year-on-year increase of 555.9 billion yuan [3]. - The report anticipates that the implementation of personal consumption loans and business loan interest subsidies will create opportunities for retail credit growth [3]. - The report suggests that the banking sector's fundamentals are accumulating positive factors, indicating a potential turning point in performance [3]. Summary by Sections Credit Demand and Social Financing - In July, the total social financing stock grew by 9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of approximately 0.1 percentage points [3]. - The report indicates that the demand for loans from both households and enterprises remains weak, with a notable decrease in household loans by 4.893 trillion yuan year-on-year [3]. Deposit Trends - Non-bank deposits saw a significant increase of 2.14 trillion yuan year-on-year, attributed to the active capital market [3]. - The report mentions a "deposit migration" phenomenon, where household and corporate deposits decreased significantly, while fiscal deposits increased by 770 billion yuan year-on-year [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the effectiveness of a package of policies and upcoming reform measures from the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session and the 15th Five-Year Plan [3]. - Specific stock recommendations include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398), Agricultural Bank of China (601288), Postal Savings Bank of China (601658), Jiangsu Bank (600919), and Hangzhou Bank (600926) [3].