铁矿周报2025、8、13：等待驱动-20250814

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of iron ore has recovered, the demand remains high, and although the downstream profits have weakened slightly, they are still at a high level. Iron ore may continue to fluctuate. The monthly spread may remain volatile in the short - term, and the basis of the 09 contract has declined slightly with a weaker basis rate. The short - term demand for iron ore still shows resilience, and the inventory has increased overall. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Differences - The premium of Jinbuba powder has declined; the premiums of mainstream medium - and low - grade ores are stable; the price difference between domestic and foreign ores is stable. [5] 3.2 Weekly Review Supply - Globally, the shipping volume has declined again. The shipments from Australia and Brazil have weakened significantly, while the shipments from non - mainstream regions have stabilized and rebounded. The arrival volume has generally increased. According to Reuters, on August 4, 2025, the 7 - day moving average shipping volume of global iron ore (excluding mainland China) was 5760 thousand tons, with a week - on - week increase of 25% and a year - on - year increase of 2.75%. The 7 - day moving average shipping volume from Australia was 2235 thousand tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 12% and a year - on - year increase of 2.05%. The 7 - day moving average shipping volume from Brazil was 1408 thousand tons, with a week - on - week increase of 40.6% and a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. [6][27] Demand - The iron water production has decreased slightly, with the 247 - sample daily average iron water production decreasing by 0.49 tons week - on - week to 240.32 tons, and the average daily iron water production in August being about 241 tons. The profitability rate of steel mills has increased. The weekly production of five major steel products has slightly increased, the profit of finished products has slightly decreased, the demand for rebar has rebounded, and the consumption of hot - rolled coils has declined. [6][106][132] Inventory - The inventory of 45 ports has increased by 620 thousand tons, and the proportion of traded ores is 65.48%. The total inventory of imported ores in steel mills has increased by 1.24 thousand tons, the on - site inventory has increased by 23.8 thousand tons, and the sum of sea - floating and port inventories has decreased by 22.7 thousand tons. The available days of imported ores have decreased by 1 day to 20 days. The inventory of rebar has slightly increased, the inventory of billets has continued to rise, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils has rebounded. [6][150][159] Price - The spot trading volume of iron ore has increased slightly, while the trading volume of forward contracts has declined from a high level. The basis rate of the 09 contract is about 0.4%, the basis has decreased slightly, and the basis rate has weakened. The prices of various iron ore varieties have shown different trends, and the import profits of mainstream varieties have declined oscillatingly. [6][125][181] 3.3 Weather - The precipitation in Brazil is scarce, and the overall precipitation has increased slightly. [7][8] 3.4 Balance Sheet - According to the recent shipping and arrival situation of iron ore, the supply forecast of iron ore has been slightly lowered. The total supply, consumption, surplus volume, and cumulative year - on - year changes of iron ore from September 2024 to December 2025 are presented in the balance sheet. For example, in August 2025, the total supply is 13167, the total consumption is 12261, and the surplus volume is 906. [186][187]