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锌价高位运行，现货贴水继续小幅恶化
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-14 06:35

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no specific report industry investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - Zinc prices opened high and then declined, with the operating center still at a relatively high level. Downstream buyers showed strong fear of high prices, leading to a further slight expansion of the discount and冷清 market transactions. The TC of domestic and imported zinc ores continued to rise, increasing smelting profits and maintaining smelting enthusiasm, with the expectation of increased supply remaining unchanged. Even during the peak consumption season, the expectation of inventory accumulation in China remains unchanged, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the expectation of the peak consumption season fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be watched out for [4] Group 3: Summary by Category 1. Important Data - Spot: The LME zinc spot premium was -$4.76 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 60 yuan/ton to 22,560 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -55 yuan/ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 60 yuan/ton to 22,540 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -75 yuan/ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 60 yuan/ton to 22,550 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -65 yuan/ton [1] - Futures: On August 13, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,720 yuan/ton, closed at 22,600 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 78,345 lots, and the open interest was 85,986 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22,775 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,600 yuan/ton [2] - Inventory: As of August 13, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 119,200 tons, a change of 6,000 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 78,475 tons, a change of -1,075 tons from the previous trading day [3] 2. Strategy - Single - side trading: Cautiously bearish - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]