沪锡日评：国内精炼锡产能开工率环比升高，国内外精炼锡总库存量较上周减少-20250814

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Due to the weakening US job market, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, but the expected resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and Congo-Kinshasa, along with the continuous increase in the operating rate of domestic refined tin production capacity, may limit the upside space of Shanghai tin prices. It is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on the support levels around 248,000 - 258,000 and the resistance levels around 274,000 - 283,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support levels around 30,000 - 32,000 and the resistance levels around 34,000 - 36,000 for London tin [2] Summary by Related Contents Market Data - On August 13, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 267,940, a decrease of 380 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 44,115 lots, a decrease of 37,387 lots; the open interest was 24,776 lots, a decrease of 1,155 lots; the inventory was 7,332 tons, an increase of 33 tons [2] - The closing price of LME 3 - month tin futures (electronic trading) on August 13, 2025, was 33,700, a decrease of 70 compared to the previous day [2] - The total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad decreased compared to last week [1][2] Industry News - According to the data released by the Indonesian Ministry of Trade for June, the total export volume of tin ingots decreased by 18.2% to 4,465 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Exports to Singapore increased by 15.1% month - on - month to 1,063.95 tons, while exports to China decreased by 35.7% month - on - month to 953.85 tons [2] - Stellar Resources extended the exclusive period for the use of infrastructure in the Comstock mining area adjacent to the Heemskirk tin mine project by 6 months. The company is evaluating three development plans and focusing on tailings storage solutions [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side: Tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and Congo - Kinshasa are expected to resume production; domestic refined tin production capacity operating rate has increased; the inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased, while the social inventory in China and the inventory in the London Metal Exchange have decreased [2] - Demand side: The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased, which may lead to a decrease in the operating rate of China's tin solder production capacity in August and an increase in inventory; the production volume of China's tin - plated sheets in August may increase [2] Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on the support and resistance levels of Shanghai tin and London tin [2]