国贸商品指数日报-20250814

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, most domestic commodities declined, with industrial products mostly falling and agricultural products showing mixed performance [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Series - Black series generally declined. Recently, there were continuous disturbances on the coking coal supply side, but market sentiment cooled at high levels, and steel mills delayed the implementation of coke price increases. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 23470 tons to 1.37536 million tons, reaching a more than two - month high. High - temperature weather continued, terminal demand remained weak, and speculative demand weakened. However, there were still production - cut expectations, and the overall pressure on available spot resources was not large, so the futures price fluctuations were limited [1] Basic Metals - Basic metals showed mixed performance. For copper, the lower - than - expected CPI increase in the US in July supported a September interest rate cut, the US dollar weakened, and US stocks reached new highs, supporting the strong performance of Shanghai copper. For lithium carbonate, the futures price fluctuated within a range. Downstream enterprises started peak - season stocking, demand improved, but the supply side of lithium - spodumene extraction also increased significantly, making up for the reduction in lithium - mica and salt - lake production. The supply - side disturbances were not fully realized, and the market was more sensitive to supply disturbances, so lithium carbonate continued to oscillate at a high level [1] Energy Products - Energy products weakened again. API crude oil inventory increased more than expected, and SC crude oil returned to a downward trend. In the short term, OPEC+ will maintain production increases in September, and there are concerns about the impact of tariff policies on demand, so oil prices will oscillate weakly. Geopolitical risks may cause a temporary supply shortage and support short - term oil price increases. In the long term, due to OPEC+'s production - increase strategy, weakening peak - season demand, inventory accumulation due to poor refinery profits, and the increasing substitution rate of the new - energy industry, oil prices will still face pressure [1] Oilseeds and Oils - Most oilseeds and oils rose. Stimulated by China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canada and the unexpectedly positive USDA August supply - demand report, oilseeds and oils rose significantly. The USDA August report lowered the global soybean production and ending inventory, with US soybean production reduced to 4.292 billion bushels and ending inventory to 290 million bushels, which boosted the soybean meal price. In the short term, under the influence of multiple positive factors, oilseeds and oils may continue to be strong [1]