信贷数据月间波动不影响全年平稳

Group 1: Economic Financing Demand - In July, the new RMB loans under social financing decreased by 426.3 billion, marking a low point since 2003, with a year-on-year reduction of 345.5 billion[9] - From January to July, the total new RMB loans amounted to 12.31 trillion, showing a slight year-on-year decrease of 694 billion, indicating relative stability in financing demand[11] - The decline in resident financing demand is attributed to high growth in June that overshot July's demand, cautious credit preferences, and a slowdown in housing sales[12] Group 2: Monetary Supply and Economic Activity - In July, M1 grew by 5.6%, reflecting a marginal improvement, while M2 increased by 8.8%, up by 0.5 percentage points from the previous value[14][16] - The negative gap between M1 and M2 growth rates narrowed to -3.2%, indicating an increase in economic activity[18] - The increase in corporate deposits, despite a slowdown in real estate sales, supported the recovery of M1 growth, with corporate deposits increasing by 320.9 billion year-on-year[14] Group 3: Policy Impacts and Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy and personal consumption loan subsidy scheme are expected to stabilize financing demand, with potential short-term boosts to consumer credit and spending[21][22] - The July PPI year-on-year growth rate was -3.6%, suggesting that the effects of the "anti-involution" policy on production have yet to materialize[21] - Risks include escalating geopolitical conflicts, intensified "anti-involution" policies, and underwhelming effects from consumption-boosting measures[23]