有色金属数据日报-20250814

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The recent macro - sentiment has improved, but the downstream demand is weak. Copper prices may fluctuate and remain relatively strong [1]. - The decline of the US dollar index is favorable for aluminum prices, but the downstream demand for aluminum in China is under pressure and inventories are continuously increasing. Aluminum prices may fluctuate weakly [1]. - Zinc prices have rebounded due to emotional stimulation, with little change in fundamentals. It is recommended to pay attention to selling hedging opportunities [1]. - The macro - sentiment has warmed up. Nickel prices are oscillating strongly in the short - term, but there is still pressure from the surplus of primary nickel. Short - term operations are recommended with risk control [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Indicators - LME Metals (15:00 Futures Price): Copper at $9661.5 (0.19% change), zinc at $2826.5 (1.03% change), aluminum at $1974 (0.79% change), nickel at $15295 (- 0.23% change), tin at $33835 (0.22% change) [1]. - SHFE Metals: Copper at 79530 yuan (0.46% change), zinc at 22600 yuan (0.49% change), aluminum at 20820 yuan (1.02% change), nickel at 124290 yuan (- 0.08% change), tin at 270200 yuan (- 0.14% change) [1]. Inventory Indicators - LME Total Inventory: Copper at 155875 tons (0.56% change), zinc at 144325 tons (7.45% change), aluminum at 478625 tons (0.32% change), nickel at 197796 tons (6.28% change), tin at 1000 tons (16.43% change) [1]. - SHFE Inventory: Copper at 81933 tons (- 13.29% change), zinc at 16192 tons (2.69% change), aluminum at 113614 tons (- 3.33% change), nickel at 26194 tons (- 0.56% change), tin at 7430 tons (0.45% change) [1]. Ascending and Descending Premium Indicators - LME Metals: Copper's premium changed from - 3.89 to - 83.3 (- 87.1 change), zinc's from - 3.6 to - 1.18 (- 4.8 change), aluminum's from - 4.5 to 3.47 (- 8 change), nickel's from - 206 to - 207.1 (1.13 change) [1]. - SHFE Metals: Copper's premium at 200 yuan (0.0 change), zinc's from - 50 to - 10, aluminum's from - 20 to 10 (- 30 change) [1]. Ratio Indicators - SHFE Metals' Ratio: Copper's ratio at 8.1 (0.13% change), zinc's at 8 (0.1% change), aluminum's at 7.9 (0.23% change), nickel's at 8 (- 0.37% change), tin's at 8 (0.24% change) [1]. Spread Indicators - SHFE Metals' Near - Month to Continuous Third - Month Spread: Copper's spread at - 30 yuan (0.0 change), zinc's from - 5501 to - 40, aluminum's from 55 to - 40, tin's from - 190 to - 380 (190 change) [1]. Macro Information - Fed Governor Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year and will host a community bank meeting on October 9 [1]. - China's July CPI was flat year - on - year, and PPI was - 3.6% year - on - year, the same as the previous value [1]. Metal - Specific Analysis - Copper: US July OPI strengthened the market's expectation of Fed's August interest rate cut. China's July credit data was mixed. Domestically, the copper concentrate spot processing fee increased, but downstream demand was weak, with a short - term inventory accumulation expectation [1]. - Aluminum: The decline of the US dollar index was favorable for aluminum prices, but domestic downstream demand was weak, and inventories continued to increase [1]. - Zinc: Zinc prices rebounded due to sentiment, with overall production recovering. The Ino zinc inventory was at a low level, providing some support, and it was recommended to pay attention to selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Nickel: The macro - sentiment improved, and nickel prices oscillated strongly in the short - term. However, the global nickel inventory was high, and the demand was weak, with a surplus pressure on primary nickel [1].