长江期货市场交易指引-20250814

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures - Bullish on dips; Treasury bonds - Sideways movement [1][6] - Black Building Materials: Rebar - Wait - and - see; Iron ore - Sideways movement; Coking coal and coke - Sideways movement [1][8][9] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper - Range trading or wait - and - see; Aluminum - Buy on dips after pullbacks; Nickel - Wait - and - see or short on rallies; Tin - Range trading; Gold - Range trading; Silver - Range trading [1][11][12] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC - Sideways movement; Soda ash - Short 09 and long 05 arbitrage; Caustic soda - Sideways movement; Styrene - Sideways movement; Rubber - Sideways movement; Urea - Sideways movement; Methanol - Sideways movement; Polyolefins - Wide - range sideways movement [1][19][20] - Cotton and Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn - Sideways with a bullish bias; Apple - Sideways with a bullish bias; Jujube - Sideways with a bullish bias [1][33] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Live pigs - Short on rallies; Eggs - Short on rallies; Corn - Wide - range sideways movement; Soybean meal - Range - bound; Oils and fats - Sideways with a bullish bias [1][36][40] Core Views - The market is influenced by various factors such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and geopolitical events. Different sectors show different trends and investment opportunities based on their own characteristics [6][8][11] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Index Futures: The index is expected to be strong in the medium - term. After reaching a short - term high, it may oscillate around the high point, but the upward trend remains unchanged. Investors with positions can hold or lock in profits on pullbacks, while those without positions can consider buying on dips [6] - Treasury Bonds: The bond market may continue to fluctuate bidirectionally in the near term. The possibility of a rebound at key positions is increasing, but the market still lacks a clear direction [6] Black Building Materials - Rebar: The supply - demand is relatively balanced in the short term. The futures price is expected to remain sideways. Investors can wait and see or engage in short - term trading [8] - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures price is expected to move sideways with a slightly bullish bias. It can be considered as a long leg when shorting other black varieties [8] - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The coke market is supported by cost, low inventory, and supply - tightening expectations, but the impact of steel demand fluctuations needs to be noted [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term due to factors such as domestic economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and inventory changes. The short - term operating range is 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [11] - Aluminum: The aluminum market is expected to be sideways in the short term. With the arrival of the peak season in August, investors are advised to buy on dips [12] - Other Metals: Nickel is recommended to be shorted on rallies; tin and silver are recommended for range trading; gold is recommended to be bought on dips after price pullbacks [15][16][18] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The PVC market is expected to oscillate in the short term. The 09 contract is temporarily focused on the range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton [20] - Caustic Soda: The caustic soda market is expected to oscillate. The 09 contract is temporarily focused on the range of 2400 - 2550 yuan/ton [22] - Styrene: The styrene market is expected to oscillate, with the focus on the range of 7100 - 7400 yuan/ton [24] - Rubber: The rubber price is expected to be strongly sideways. The focus is on the range of 15200 - 15600 yuan/ton [24][25] - Urea: The urea price is expected to be range - bound. The support level is 1700 - 1730 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 1800 - 1830 yuan/ton [27] - Methanol: The methanol market is expected to oscillate in the short term due to the balance between supply and demand [29] - Polyolefins: The polyolefin market is expected to be weakly sideways. The L2509 contract is focused on the range of 7200 - 7500 yuan/ton, and the PP2509 contract is focused on the range of 6900 - 7200 yuan/ton [29][30] - Soda Ash: The 09 contract of soda ash is recommended to hold short positions [32] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias due to factors such as improved global supply - demand and the approaching peak season [33][34] - Apple: The apple market is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias. Attention should be paid to the quality and price trends of early - maturing apples [34] - Jujube: The jujube price is expected to oscillate upwards in the near term [35] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Live Pigs: The short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate around 14000. The 11 and 01 contracts may have a limited rebound. The 03 contract is under pressure, while the 05 contract is relatively strong. Attention can be paid to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [36][37][38] - Eggs: The 09 contract is expected to have limited upward space. The 10 and 11 contracts in the fourth quarter can be shorted on rallies after waiting. If the elimination process accelerates, the 12 and 01 contracts can be bought on dips [38] - Corn: The corn market is expected to oscillate in the range of 2250 - 2300 yuan/ton. Attention can be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [39][40] - Soybean Meal: The M2511 and M2601 contracts can hold long positions and reduce positions on rallies. Spot enterprises can build long positions [42] - Oils and Fats: The short - term 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be strongly sideways. Caution should be exercised when chasing the rise, and existing long positions should be gradually closed. Attention can be paid to the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 reverse arbitrage [43][49]