贵金属日报：美财长呼吁降息，市场关注“普特会”会晤成果-20250814

Report Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] Core Viewpoints - The expectation of looser US monetary policy remains the main line for precious metals, providing strong price support. The market is waiting for US economic data to verify the urgency and pace of interest rate cuts. Geopolitical factors, such as the outcome of the US-Russia summit, also need attention. Gold and silver prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term [1][8][9] Summary by Directory Strategy Summary - US Treasury Secretary Bessent called for an immediate new round of interest rate cuts, suggesting that US interest rates should be 150 - 175 basis points lower than the current level. There is a high possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut in September. There are 10 or 11 candidates for the Fed Chair. Trump may propose joint development of rare earth resources in Alaska and lift export bans on Russian aircraft parts during the summit. If the meeting goes poorly, the US may increase sanctions or impose secondary tariffs on Russia [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On August 13, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 777.28 yuan/gram and closed at 777.72 yuan/gram, up 0.22% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The overnight session closed at 777.10 yuan/gram, down 0.08% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 9,182.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,300.00 yuan/kilogram, up 1.23% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 415,237 lots, and the open interest was 365,333 lots. The overnight session closed at 9,318 yuan/kilogram, up 0.19% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 13, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.24%, down 5 basis points from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.57%, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On August 13, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 24 lots, and short positions decreased by 60 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 268,832 lots, up 10.32% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2508 contract, long positions decreased by 754 lots, and short positions decreased by 550 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 640,354 lots, up 46.37% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 964.22 tons, up 4.58 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,099.56 tons, up 40.96 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On August 13, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 9.96 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 641.74 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 83.63, down 1.00% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 88.82, down 0.13% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On August 13, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 32,602 kilograms, down 0.56% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 376,786 kilograms, up 24.67% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 10,014 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 2,070 kilograms [7] Strategy Recommendations - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 760 yuan/gram and 795 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The silver price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9,150 yuan/kilogram and 9,450 yuan/kilogram. Arbitrage strategy: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels. Option strategy: Postpone [9]