农产品日报：供需报告利多，豆粕偏强震荡-20250814

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal sector is neutral [4] - The investment rating for the corn sector is cautiously bearish [6] 2. Core Views - For the soybean meal market, although the new - season US soybeans are expected to be in good harvest, the lack of substantial progress in Sino - US policies and the rising Brazilian premium have supported the soybean meal price. In the short term, the fundamentals will not change significantly, and policies and Brazilian premium will be important price - influencing factors [3] - For the corn market, the low remaining grain in the domestic market provides some support, but the weak market sentiment and low demand mean there is a lack of upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the new - season corn yield [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3163 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan/ton (+2.33%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2723 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (+2.64%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3000 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2980 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2690 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.2 Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2279 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton (+0.84%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2651 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.23%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2730 yuan/ton [4] 3.1.3 US Department of Agriculture's August Supply - Demand Report - Soybeans: The estimated harvest area for the 2025/26 US soybeans was 80.104 million acres, lower than the market expectation. The yield per acre was 53.6 bushels, higher than expected. The production was 4.292 billion bushels, slightly lower than expected, and the ending stocks were 290 million bushels, a three - year low [2] - Corn: The estimated sown area for the 2025/26 US corn was 97.3 million acres, the harvested area was 88.7 million acres, the yield per acre was 188.8 bushels, the production was 16.742 billion bushels, the export volume was 2.875 billion bushels, and the ending stocks were 2.117 billion bushels, all higher than the July estimates [4] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Soybean Meal Market - The new - season US soybeans are growing well, with a high - level growth situation in five years. The weather is favorable, and the expectation of a good harvest is strong. However, the lack of progress in Sino - US policies has caused market concerns. Domestically, although the soybean supply is sufficient and the soybean meal inventory is rising, the rising Brazilian premium and lack of policy progress have supported the price [3] 3.2.2 Corn Market - Domestically, the low remaining grain provides some support, but the weak market sentiment and low demand mean there is a lack of upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the new - season corn yield [5] 3.3 Strategy - For the soybean meal market, the strategy is neutral [4] - For the corn market, the strategy is cautiously bearish [6]