新能源及有色金属日报：下游补库积极性仍有限，铅价震荡回落-20250814

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [4] Core View - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, failing to reflect the characteristics of the traditional peak demand season. Lead prices are expected to remain in a volatile range of 16,300 - 17,150 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - On August 13, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$38.73/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -35.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,175 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells increased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,525 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On August 13, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,940 yuan/ton, closed at 16,930 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 28,937 lots, down 1,049 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 49,424 lots, down 1,799 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point at 16,975 yuan/ton and the lowest at 16,865 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,880 yuan/ton and closed at 16,775 yuan/ton, down 0.89% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the Henan region, holders offered at a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price or at a discount of 170 - 110 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract, with limited supply of low - priced goods. In the Hunan region, smelters offered at a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price, and traders offered at a discount of 170 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract, but the trading was relatively light. In the Jiangxi region, holders offered at a premium of 50 - 70 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price or at a discount of 120 - 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. The lead futures weakened during the day, and some holders near the delivery date stopped offering and preferred to deliver to the warehouse. Downstream buyers made rigid purchases at low prices, and the overall market trading improved limitedly [2] Inventory - On August 13, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 110 tons from the previous week. As of August 13, the LME lead inventory was 262,225 tons, a decrease of 25 tons from the previous trading day [3]