农产品日报：库存果交易混乱，新季枣质量有待观望-20250814

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and red date industries is neutral [3][8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Apple: The apple market is currently in a stable and dull state. The inventory is at a relatively low level, which supports the price of inventory apples. The quality of early - maturing apples is not good, with many showing green - returning phenomena, resulting in average sales of both early - maturing and inventory apples. The impact of the large - scale listing of Gala apples on the market and the weather conditions in the main producing areas need to be followed [1][2][3] - Red date: Since June, the market has been trading around the expectation of a new - season red date production cut. The sensitivity to new - season changes in the producing areas has increased. The current differences in the estimation of the new - season red date production are intensifying. The short - term trend of the futures may be volatile and strong due to capital sentiment. However, if the production - cut expectation cannot be realized, the red date price may return to a weak state under the high - inventory pressure [7][8] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Apple Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract was 8158 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.24%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.50 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP10 - 558 in Shandong and AP10 + 842 in Shaanxi increased by 20 respectively [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price closed lower yesterday. The high - temperature weather in Shaanxi may affect the high - quality fruit rate of Gala apples. The inventory Fuji farmers are selling at discounted prices. The impact of the large - scale listing of Gala apples on the futures market and the weather changes in the main producing areas need to be followed. The early - maturing fruit price is weak, and the inventory fruit price is stable. The high - quality apples are sold at high prices in the sales area, but the overall sales are slow [1][2] Strategy - The apple fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and the short - term price is expected to remain stable [3] Red Date Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract was 11410 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton (- 1.21%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.60 yuan/kg, up 0.10 yuan/kg from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 1810 increased by 240 [4] Market Analysis - The red date futures continued to close lower yesterday. The high temperature in the producing areas makes the quality of new - season red dates to be verified. The futures market is mainly affected by macro - sentiment. The early - stage fruit - setting of some orchards was average, but the fruit - setting of the second and third batches of flowers was good due to temperature drop and rainfall in early July. The trading atmosphere in the sales area has improved, and the price of high - quality goods is strong. The inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 255 tons (2.54%) from the previous week [5][6][7] Strategy - The differences in the estimation of the new - season red date production are intensifying. The short - term futures trend may be volatile and strong due to capital sentiment. But if the production - cut expectation cannot be realized, the red date price may return to a weak state under the high - inventory pressure [8]