新能源及有色金属日报：进口货源陆续到港，铜价小幅回落-20250814

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is cautiously bullish [7] Core Viewpoints - With the current low domestic TC price, copper prices are prone to rise and difficult to fall. The increasing market expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the strong performance of precious metal prices suggest a strategy of buying on dips for hedging, with a recommended buying range of 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Key Data - Futures Market: On August 13, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 79,220 yuan/ton and closed at 79,380 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from the previous trading day. The night - session closed at 79,110 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the afternoon close [1] - Spot Market: The domestic electrolytic copper spot market remained strong. SMM1 copper was quoted at 79,390 - 79,560 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Despite incoming imported goods, spot premiums are likely to stay high due to approaching delivery and bill factors [2] Important Information Summary - Monetary Policy: US Treasury Secretary Besent called for the Fed to start a new round of interest rate cuts, suggesting rates should be 150 - 175 basis points lower. There's a high chance of a 50 - basis - point cut in September [3] - Geopolitics: Trump may propose joint development of rare earth resources in Alaska and lift export bans on Russian aircraft parts during the Russia - US summit. If the meeting goes poorly, the US may increase sanctions or impose secondary tariffs on Russia [3] Mining End - Production Guidance: Minmetals Resources maintained its 2025 production guidance, with copper output expected between 466,000 and 522,000 tons and zinc output between 215,000 and 240,000 tons [4] - Cost Reduction: The C1 cost guidance of Las Bambas and Rosebery was revised downwards due to favorable precious metal prices and lower processing fees [4] - New Discovery: Seabridge Gold found a large porphyry copper - gold mineralization zone in the Snip North target area, with the first resource report to be released early next year [4] Smelting and Import - LME Inventory: In July, a large amount of Chinese - origin copper flowed into LME registered warehouses, reducing the proportion of Russian - origin copper. The proportion of Russian - origin copper dropped from 53% in June to 19% in July, while Chinese - origin copper increased from 42% to 77% [4] Consumption - AI Data Centers: AI data center construction may tighten the global copper market, leading to a supply shortage of 6 million tons by 2035. Annual copper demand in this industry will average about 400,000 tons in the next decade, peaking at 572,000 tons in 2028 [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME Warehouse Receipts: Changed by - 700 tons to 155,875 tons compared to the previous trading day [6] - SHFE Warehouse Receipts: Changed by - 3,496 tons to 22,800 tons compared to the previous trading day [6] - Domestic Spot Inventory: On August 11, it was 1.316 million tons, a change of - 400 tons from the previous week [6] Strategy - Copper: Cautiously bullish. Recommend buying on dips for hedging in the range of 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: Short put at 77,000 yuan/ton [7]