农产品日报：USDA报告利多，棉价应声上涨-20250814

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral. The lower inventory and upcoming textile peak season provide strong support for cotton prices, but the ample global supply in the new year and potential regulatory policies limit the upside [2] - Sugar: Neutral. Short - term range - bound, long - term bearish [5] - Pulp: Neutral. The current pulp market fundamentals have no significant improvement, and short - term prices are hard to break out of the bottom [7] Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: The USDA report is bullish, causing cotton prices to rise. However, the global cotton market in the 2025/26 season may still be in a loose supply pattern. In China, short - term cotton prices have bottom support, but the long - term outlook is bearish due to new cotton listing and uncertain demand [1] - Sugar: The Brazilian data is bearish, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures face short - term upward pressure due to factors like slow domestic sales and large imports [4] - Pulp: The supply of pulp is under pressure in the second half of 2025, and the demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to remain at a low level [6] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Cotton - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 14,130 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton (+1.07%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,057 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,188 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [1] Sugar - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5657 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton (+0.87%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5855 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [3] - Export: Brazil exported 392.08 million tons of sugar in August 2024, with a daily average of 17.82 million tons [3] Pulp - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2511 contract was 5302 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton (+0.72%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5860 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [5] Group 4: Market Analysis Cotton - International: The USDA report is bullish, but the global cotton market in 2025/26 may have loose supply. The US cotton balance sheet is difficult to improve, and prices will follow the macro - market sentiment [1] - Domestic: Short - term cotton prices have bottom support, but the long - term outlook is bearish due to new cotton listing and uncertain demand [1] Sugar - International: Brazilian data is bearish, and the raw sugar futures are in bottom - range oscillation with limited rebound space [4] - Domestic: The domestic sugar market has increasing pressure due to slower sales, large imports, and falling processed sugar prices [4] Pulp - Supply: There is supply pressure in the second half of 2025, with high port inventories and expected decline in imports [6] - Demand: The demand is weak both at home and abroad, and the improvement in the second half of the year is limited [6] Group 5: Strategies - Cotton: Adopt a neutral strategy, as the price has a bottom and upside limited [2] - Sugar: Adopt a neutral strategy, with short - term range - bound and long - term bearish views [5] - Pulp: Adopt a neutral strategy, as the short - term price is hard to break out of the bottom [7]