化工日报：天然橡胶社会库存环比继续下降-20250814

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for RU and NR is cautiously bullish, while the rating for BR is neutral [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The rainfall in major rubber - producing areas at home and abroad is expected to increase, which may limit raw material output and strengthen the cost - side support for rubber. The arrival volume at Qingdao Port has decreased, but the import volume of alternative indicators in Yunnan has rebounded. With stable imports and lackluster downstream demand, rubber prices are expected to remain strong. For BR, the supply may increase slightly, and the downstream demand remains lackluster. It may follow the raw material price trend, but it is also affected by the strong price of surrounding natural rubber and continuous tire replacement demand [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,800 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous day. The NR main contract was 12,610 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton. - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,620 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,810 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,760 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,850 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - In July 2025, China imported 634,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 3.4% increase from the same period in 2024. - ANRPC predicted that in June 2025, the global natural rubber production would decrease by 1.5% to 1,191,000 tons, a 14.5% increase from the previous month, and the consumption would increase by 0.7% to 1,271,000 tons, a 0.1% increase from the previous month. In the first half of the year, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to decrease by 1.1% to 6,076,000 tons, while the cumulative consumption increased by 1% to 7,715,000 tons. - In the first seven months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase from the same period in 2024. In July alone, exports increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month. - In July 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, an approximately 42% increase from 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year. - In the first half of 2025, the United States imported 143.43 million tires, a 6.8% year - on - year increase. Passenger car tire imports increased by 3% to 84.89 million, truck and bus tire imports increased by 10% to 32.32 million, aircraft tire imports decreased by 13% to 132,000, motorcycle tire imports increased by 22% to 1.88 million, and bicycle tire imports increased by 5% to 3.15 million [2][3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spread: On August 13, 2025, the RU basis was - 1,000 yuan/ton (+60), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,240 yuan/ton (+65), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,861 yuan/ton (- 41.18), the NR basis was 262 yuan/ton (- 7). The price of whole latex was 14,800 yuan/ton (+0), the price of mixed rubber was 14,620 yuan/ton (+40), and the price of 3L spot was 14,800 yuan/ton (- 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,805 US dollars/ton (- 5), the spread between whole latex and 3L was 0 yuan/ton (+50), and the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,520 yuan/ton (+40). - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 62.50 Thai baht/kg (- 0.20), the price of Thai latex was 54.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.20), the price of Thai cup lump was 49.80 Thai baht/kg (+0.50), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.40 Thai baht/kg (- 0.30). -开工率: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 60.06% (+0.80%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.71% (- 0.27%). - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,277,859 tons (- 10,990), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 619,852 tons (- 11,918), the RU futures inventory was 176,280 tons (- 1,350), and the NR futures inventory was 42,235 tons (+2,519) [4] 顺丁橡胶 - Spot and Spread: On August 13, 2025, the BR basis was 50 yuan/ton (+275), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,850 yuan/ton (+150), the price of private - owned cis - polybutadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,700 yuan/ton (+150), and the import profit of cis - polybutadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,112 yuan/ton (+42). -开工率: The operating rate of high - cis cis - polybutadiene rubber was 68.17% (- 4.30%). - Inventory: The inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber traders was 7,290 tons (- 230), and the inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber enterprises was 24,150 tons (+350) [4][5] Strategy - For RU and NR, it is advisable to be cautiously bullish. With expected increased rainfall in major producing areas, raw material output may be limited, strengthening cost - side support. Domestic imports are expected to remain stable. With lackluster downstream demand, focus on the raw material procurement willingness of downstream factories. - For BR, it is rated neutral. The supply may increase slightly, and downstream demand remains lackluster. It may follow the raw material price trend, but is also affected by strong natural rubber prices and continuous tire replacement demand [5]