USDA超预期下调大豆种植面积，油脂震荡偏强

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The USDA unexpectedly cut the soybean planting area, and the prices of the three major oils oscillated upward. Despite a record - high yield per unit, the significant reduction in the planting area led the USDA to lower the soybean production forecast. With the bullish impact of the USDA report and the conclusion of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the overall situation provided some support for the oil market, causing the oil prices to strengthen [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 9424.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +62 yuan and a change rate of +0.66%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8576.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +100.00 yuan and a change rate of +1.18%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 10064.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +262.00 yuan and a change rate of +2.67% [1] Spot Market - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9470.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +150.00 yuan and a change rate of +1.61%. The spot basis was P09 + 46.00, with a month - on - month change of +88.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8680.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +110.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of +1.28%. The spot basis was Y09 + 104.00, with a month - on - month change of +10.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10170.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +260.00 yuan and a change rate of +2.62%. The spot basis was OI09 + 106.00, with a month - on - month change of - 2.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary Palm Oil Export Tax - Malaysia raised its reference price for crude palm oil in September, increasing the export tax to 10%. The reference price for crude palm oil in September was 4053.43 ringgit per ton (962.12 US dollars), compared to 3864.12 US dollars in August with an export tax of 9% [2] Soybean and Rapeseed Prices - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 457 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F price of US West soybeans (September shipment) was 451 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) was 498 US dollars/ton, up 14 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) was 542 US dollars/ton, down 14 US dollars/ton, and the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) was 532 US dollars/ton, down 14 US dollars/ton [2] Imported Oil Prices - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (September shipment) was 1146 US dollars/ton, up 21 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day, and the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (November shipment) was 1138 US dollars/ton, up 19 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (September shipment) was 1035 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (November shipment) was 1015 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] USDA Forecast - The USDA expected the soybean yield per unit in the United States in the 2025/26 season to reach 53.6 bushels per acre, higher than the July forecast of 52.5 bushels and the analyst's expectation of 52.9 bushels. The USDA significantly cut the soybean planting area forecast from 83.4 million acres in July to 80.9 million acres, and lowered the soybean production forecast from 4.335 billion bushels in July to 4.292 billion bushels [2][3]