中国7月金融数据稳健增长，A股放量走强

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - China's financial data in July showed steady growth, and the A-share market strengthened with increased trading volume. The economy in July still had resilience, with positive policies and various economic indicators showing certain trends. For example, China's July exports increased, and the narrowing M2 - M1 gap indicated improved capital circulation efficiency. In the US, the July non - farm data was below expectations, but the service PMI improved, and inflation showed different trends [2]. - Attention should be paid to the impact of "reciprocal tariffs." The US has set new tariff standards, and the current tariff situation may affect goods with high external demand. Concerns about interest rate hikes and market liquidity shortages have increased, and the demand for Japanese government bond auctions has decreased [3]. - Different commodity sectors have different characteristics. The black and new energy metal sectors are sensitive to the domestic supply - side, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation expectations, and the "anti - involution" space of some chemical products and the follow - up trends of "anti - involution" in the market are worthy of attention [4]. - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - China's economic data in July: The official manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.3, the new order index dropped to 49.4, non - manufacturing remained in expansion, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year, CPI was flat year - on - year, PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed, new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed. The US's July non - farm data was below expectations, but the service PMI improved, and inflation showed different trends. On August 13, the A - share market strengthened, and trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan [2]. Tariff and Interest Rate - The US has set new "reciprocal tariff" standards, and the current tariff situation is in a "stagnant" stage, which may affect external - demand - sensitive goods. After the July interest rate meeting, the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts is uncertain, and concerns about interest rate hikes and market liquidity shortages have increased, leading to a decrease in the demand for Japanese government bond auctions [3]. Commodity Analysis - Different commodity sectors: The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, the supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector persists, the energy sector's medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose (OPEC + plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August), and the "anti - involution" space of some chemical products is worthy of attention. Agricultural products have limited short - term fluctuations. After the start of the "anti - involution" market in July, major varieties have retreated to some extent, and future trends will depend on the restoration of the economic fundamentals before the introduction of reciprocal tariffs in April and the implementation of "anti - involution" [4]. Strategy - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [5]. Key News - China's financial data from January to July: RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan. At the end of July, M2 was 329.94 trillion yuan (up 8.8% year - on - year), M1 was 111.06 trillion yuan (up 5.6% year - on - year), M0 was 13.28 trillion yuan (up 11.8% year - on - year), and the net cash injection in the first seven months was 465.1 billion yuan. The social financing scale from January to July was 23.99 trillion yuan [6]. - Other news: The IEA predicts that the global oil market will face a record supply surplus next year. Trump will meet with Putin to discuss the Ukraine crisis. The A - share market strengthened on August 13, and the trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan [2][4][6].