聚丙烯日报：供应增量，丙烯震荡运行-20250814

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: PL01 - 02 inter - period reverse spread; Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Supply - side overall开工率环比回升，PDH装置开工率回升，天弘PDH装置存重启预期，山东主力PDH装置存检修计划，但烟台区域亦有装置供应临时放量，丙烯价格偏弱整理 [2] - Downstream开工涨跌分化，酚酮开工回升较快，下游采购积极性回落，择低刚需入市为主，需求阶段性小幅支撑，但韧性仍显不足，丙烯走势承压，后期关注金九银十主力下游的采购节奏 [2] - Cost - end原油走弱，且沙特CP下跌带动丙烷价格下行，丙烯成本支撑下移 [2] Summaries by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Figures include propylene main contract closing price, propylene East China basis, propylene North China basis, propylene 01 - 05 contract, propylene market price in East China, and propylene market price in Shandong [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures cover propylene China CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, propylene PDH production gross profit, propylene PDH capacity utilization rate, propylene MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [16][18][24] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Figures involve South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, and propylene import profit [30][34] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Figures include PP powder production profit, PP powder operating rate, propylene oxide production profit, propylene oxide operating rate, n - butanol production profit, n - butanol capacity utilization rate, octanol production profit, octanol capacity utilization rate, acrylic acid production profit, acrylic acid capacity utilization rate, acrylonitrile production profit, acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate, phenol - acetone production profit, and phenol - acetone capacity utilization rate [37][39][42] 5. Propylene Inventory - Figures are about propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [64]