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海外大型铜企25Q2季度经营跟踪深度报告:25Q2铜矿扰动再放大,铜矿增量稀缺格局明确
NORTHEAST SECURITIES·2025-08-14 07:09

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperforming the Market" [4] Core Insights - The copper mining industry is experiencing significant supply disruptions, leading to a clear pattern of scarce incremental production for the year [14][15] - The total production guidance for the ten major copper mining companies is projected to be 9.759 million tons for 2025, which represents a decrease of 57,000 tons compared to the actual production in 2024 [14][17] - Major companies are struggling to meet their production guidance, with most achieving less than 50% of their annual targets by mid-2025 [15] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Supply Disruptions - The report tracks ten major copper mining companies, including Freeport, Codelco, BHP, and others, highlighting frequent supply disruptions in the first half of 2025 [13][14] - The average production for these companies in Q2 2025 increased by 5% quarter-on-quarter but decreased by 2% year-on-year [14][16] 2. Company-Specific Updates Freeport - Freeport's production guidance has been adjusted downwards due to challenges at the Grasberg mine, with a new target of 1.79 million tons for the year [15][18] - The company has a rich asset portfolio with significant copper, gold, and molybdenum reserves [18] Codelco - Codelco's production recovery efforts are hindered by mining accidents, affecting its output and guidance [15] BHP - BHP reported a slight increase in copper production in Q2 2025, but its long-term production guidance indicates a decline in ore grades [15][17] Glencore - Glencore's copper production is under pressure, with expectations of continued declines in 2025 [15] Southern Copper - Southern Copper's production remains stable, with expected increases primarily in the long term [15] First Quantum - First Quantum faces challenges in production recovery, particularly at its Cobre Panama mine [15] Anglo American - Anglo American's production is under pressure due to declining ore grades, impacting overall output [15] Rio Tinto - Rio Tinto's Oyu Tolgoi underground mine is expected to contribute significantly to future production, although current output is still being ramped up [15] Antofagasta - Antofagasta is expanding its operations to mitigate the impact of declining ore grades [15] Teck Resources - Teck Resources has adjusted its production guidance downward due to limitations at its QB2 project [15]