化工日报：市场震荡运行，关注美俄元首会面情况-20250814

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the meeting between the US and Russian presidents. In the medium term, as global refineries reach their highest annual operating rates, the demand for crude oil will experience a shift from strong to weak. The oil market may decline in the second half of the year unless the US significantly increases sanctions on Russia [1] - PX supply is expected to increase, but the increase is limited. The PX balance sheet has shifted from destocking to a loose balance, but PX remains in a low - inventory state. The PXN has support at the bottom, but the floating price of PX has shown some weakness [1] - In the short term, the supply - demand situation of PTA has improved due to maintenance, but it is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up in August. The mainstream suppliers' active sales are putting pressure on prices [2] - The polyester operating rate is 88.8% (a month - on - month increase of 0.7%). The terminal weaving industry's raw material restocking was driven by anti - involution sentiment in July, but the demand has not fundamentally improved. The polyester load remains firm in the short term [2] - The spot production profit of PF is 102 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton). The demand for PF has improved slightly but is still limited, and the near - month 09 contract is under pressure from the forced cancellation of warehouse receipts [3] - The spot processing fee of PR is 393 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 27 yuan/ton). Major polyester bottle - chip factories will continue to cut production in August, and the processing fee is expected to recover [3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures show the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][15] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures display PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures present the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][26] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of Chinese, South Korean, and Taiwanese PTA, as well as Chinese and Asian PX [28][31][35] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures show PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing industries [48][50][59] PF Detailed Data - Figures show polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventories, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn operating rates, processing fees, and in - factory inventory available days [68][72][79] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot and export processing fees, bottle - chip export profit, price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [88][93][96]