沪指突破“924”行情高点

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - The remarks of Besent suggesting a possible 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September boosted the US stocks, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hitting new highs. In the domestic market, the Shanghai Composite Index successfully broke through the high of the "924" market last year. Although the trading volume on that day increased significantly compared with recent days but did not reach an extremely high level. There may be short - term washing behavior, but the overall upward channel pattern is maintained. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the layout opportunities during the pullbacks [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Consumption Policy Advancement: Domestically, from January to July this year, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. At the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, and the stock of social financing scale increased by 9%. Four departments including the central bank explained two discount policies, which are an innovative exploration of fiscal - financial coordination to support and boost consumption and will form a "combination punch" with policies such as subsidies for trading in old consumer goods for new ones. Overseas, US Treasury Secretary Besent issued the clearest call for interest rate cuts so far, asking the Federal Reserve to immediately start a new round of interest rate cut cycles and stating that US interest rates should be 150 to 175 basis points lower than the current level. He believes that the Federal Reserve may start interest rate cuts earlier, and there is a high possibility of a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September [1]. - Shanghai Composite Index Uptrend: In the spot market, the three major A - share indices fluctuated upwards. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48% to close at 3683.46 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.62%. In terms of industries, most sector indices rose. The communication, non - ferrous metals, electronics, and pharmaceutical and biological industries led the gains, while the banking, coal, and food and beverage industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan on that day. In the overseas market, the three major US stock indices closed up across the board, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1.04% to close at 44922.27 points [1]. - Futures Index Position Reduction: In the futures market, in terms of basis, the current - month futures index contract will be delivered on Friday, and the basis tends to converge. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume of the IH contract increased, while the open interest of stock index futures decreased [2]. 2. Strategy - The remarks of Besent about a possible 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September boosted US stocks. In the domestic market, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the high of the "924" market last year. Although the trading volume increased significantly but did not reach an extremely high level. There may be short - term adjustments, but the overall upward trend remains. Investors are advised to look for opportunities during pullbacks [3]. 3. Charts Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts such as the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share trends, the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][12][11]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - Domestic Main Stock Index Daily Performance: On August 13, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3683.46, up 0.48% from the previous day; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11551.36, up 1.76%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2496.50, up 3.62%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4176.58, up 0.79%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2812.98, up 0.61%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6508.10, up 1.40%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7064.33, up 1.45% [14]. - Also includes charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [6][15]. Futures Index Tracking Charts - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest data of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts are provided. For example, the trading volume of the IF contract was 126774, an increase of 23189, and the open interest was 266298, an increase of 10150 [16]. - Basis: The basis data of the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are given. For example, the current - month contract basis of the IF contract was 4.62, an increase of 4.05 [41]. - Inter - temporal Spread: The inter - temporal spread data of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts are presented, including the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts, the next - quarter and current - month contracts, etc. For example, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of the IF contract was - 10.40, an increase of 2.80 [46]. - Also includes charts related to open interest, open interest ratio, and foreign capital net positions of each contract [6].