沥青数据日报-20250814

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The extension of the "tariff truce" between China and the US for 90 days shows that the bilateral economic and trade relations are moving towards "phased relaxation", creating a positive atmosphere for future consultations [1] - OPEC has raised its forecast for global oil demand next year and lowered its forecast for supply growth from the US and other non - OPEC members, indicating a tighter market outlook [2] - US crude and gasoline inventories are expected to have decreased last week, with an average estimated decline of about 300,000 barrels in crude inventories and a decrease of 1.78 million barrels in gasoline inventories [2] - EIA has lowered its oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 due to increased crude oil inventories after OPEC+ decided to accelerate production increases [2] - In the asphalt market, demand in the North China market is slowly recovering, and supply in the Shandong market is abundant. The Northeast market has weak demand, while the Southern market has stable prices with medium - low inventory and slow demand release. Overall, regional differentiation continues, and the supply - demand structure is the key variable for short - term price trends [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Asphalt Spot Market - In the East China region, the current asphalt spot price is 3730, unchanged from the previous value; in South China, it is 3530, also unchanged; in the Northeast, it is 3900, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 3860, unchanged; in Shandong, it is 3640, down 10 from the previous value; in the unspecified region, it is 3690, up 30 from the previous value [1] Asphalt Futures Market - For asphalt futures contracts BU2508, BU2509, BU2510, BU2511, BU2512, and BU2601, the current values are 3406, 3534, 3503, 3460, 3406, and 3370 respectively. The price changes are 0.00%, - 0.17%, - 0.14%, - 0.09%, 0.00%, and - 0.03% respectively compared to the previous values [1] International Economic and Trade News - On August 12, China and the US issued a joint statement. The US will continue to adjust tariff measures on Chinese goods, and both sides will continue to suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days [1] Oil Market News - OPEC has raised its forecast for global oil demand next year and lowered its forecast for supply growth from non - OPEC members [2] - US crude and gasoline inventories are expected to have decreased last week, with an average estimated decline of about 300,000 barrels in crude inventories and a decrease of 1.78 million barrels in gasoline inventories [2] - EIA has lowered its oil price forecasts. The expected average Brent crude price for 2025 is $67.22/barrel (previously $68.89/barrel), and for 2026 is $51.43/barrel (previously $58.48/barrel). The expected average WTI price for 2025 is $63.58/barrel (previously $65.22/barrel), and for 2026 is $47.77/barrel (previously $54.82/barrel) [2] Asphalt Market Analysis - In the North China asphalt market, demand is slowly recovering, and limited shipments from major refineries support spot prices. In the Shandong market, supply is abundant, and transactions are concentrated in the low - price range. In the Northeast market, demand is weak, and some traders lower prices to stimulate sales. In the Southern market, demand is slow, but refinery inventories are medium - low, and prices are stable [5] - In the future, North China and Shandong refineries will focus on contract deliveries, and inventory levels are controllable. The tight supply in North China may support asphalt prices, while the Southern market is expected to have stable prices due to slow demand release [5]