新能源及有色金属日报：基本面稳定，价格波动加剧-20250814

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [10] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [10] - Aluminum alloy: Neutral [10] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall commodity prices fluctuate sharply, while aluminum prices fluctuate relatively less. During the seasonal consumption off - season, aluminum prices maintain a volatile trend. With the social inventory increasing and the inventory accumulation of aluminum rods slowing down, the aluminum price has limited downside space without macro - negative disturbances. The consumption peak season is worth looking forward to, and if it materializes, it will drive up the aluminum price [6]. - Alumina prices are highly volatile due to capital speculation. The political situation in Guinea is tense, but currently, there is no impact on mining and shipping. The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation, and it is too early for market - based capacity clearance [7][8]. - Aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season. The futures price fluctuates with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum and primary aluminum is tight, and the cost side supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 20,760 yuan/ton, with a change of 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount is - 20 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton [1]. - Central China A00 aluminum price is 20,650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount is - 130 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day [1]. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 20,710 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The aluminum spot premium/discount is - 70 yuan/ton, with a change of - 15 yuan/ton [1]. 3.1.2 Aluminum Futures - On August 13, 2025, the opening price of the main SHFE aluminum contract is 20,770 yuan/ton, the closing price is 20,790 yuan/ton, with a change of 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price is 20,855 yuan/ton, and the lowest price is 20,755 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 82,078 lots, and the open interest is 216,466 lots [2]. 3.1.3 Inventory - As of August 13, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 587,000 tons, with a change of 2.3 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory is 55,116 tons, with a change of 6,406 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory is 478,625 tons, with a change of 1,525 tons from the previous trading day [2]. 3.1.4 Alumina Spot Price - On August 13, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi is 3,240 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 3,220 yuan/ton, in Henan is 3,240 yuan/ton, in Guangxi is 3,315 yuan/ton, in Guizhou is 3,330 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina is 370 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.1.5 Alumina Futures - On August 13, 2025, the opening price of the main alumina contract is 3,301 yuan/ton, the closing price is 3,230 yuan/ton, with a change of - 30 yuan/ton (- 0.92%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price is 3,321 yuan/ton, and the lowest price is 3,221 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 170,742 lots, and the open interest is 89,264 lots [2]. 3.1.6 Aluminum Alloy Price - On August 13, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil primary aluminum is 15,500 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminum is 15,600 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 is 19,900 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. 3.1.7 Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 48,400 tons, and the in - plant inventory is 60,700 tons [4]. 3.1.8 Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 20,065 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 165 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - Aluminum prices fluctuate relatively less. During the seasonal consumption off - season, the prices maintain a volatile trend. The social inventory increases continuously, but the inventory accumulation of aluminum rods slows down. There is no upward driving force currently, but the downside space is limited without macro - negative disturbances. The consumption peak season is worth looking forward to, and if it materializes, it will drive up the aluminum price [6]. 3.2.2 Alumina - Alumina prices fluctuate greatly due to capital speculation. The political situation in Guinea is tense, but currently, there is no impact on mining and shipping. The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation, and it is too early for market - based capacity clearance [7][8]. 3.2.3 Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season. The futures price fluctuates with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum and primary aluminum is tight, and the cost side supports the price. The spread between AD2511 - AL2511 contracts is - 525 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [9]. 3.3 Strategy 3.3.1 Unilateral - Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy: Neutral [10]. 3.3.2 Arbitrage - SHFE aluminum positive arbitrage; Long AD11 and short AL11 [10].