燃料油日报：高低硫燃油价差震荡走强，上行空间或有限-20250814

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report indicates that the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils has been oscillating and strengthening, but its upward space is likely limited. In the current environment where high - sulfur fuel oil is stabilizing and low - sulfur fuel oil lacks driving forces, the LU - FU spread does not have the room for significant upward movement [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.41% at 2,730 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.03% at 3,463 yuan/ton. The crude oil price continued its weak oscillating trend, with a bearish cost - side guidance, causing the FU and LU futures to decline. The short - term uncertainty lies in the outcome of the Russia - US summit on the 15th, as the US's attitude towards sanctions on Russia will affect market sentiment [1]. - For the high - sulfur fuel oil market, after continuous adjustments to the market structure, short - term contradictions are relatively limited. The spot premium and monthly spread of the overseas market show signs of stabilizing but lack obvious strengthening drivers. The spot supply is still abundant, and the demand side lacks growth momentum, with high inventories in the Asia - Pacific region. In the long - run trend of crude oil lightening and refinery equipment upgrading, there is still structural support. If the crack spread adjusts sufficiently to attract a significant rebound in refinery demand, the market structure may strengthen again, but in the short term, the previously accumulated inventory still needs to be digested [1]. - Regarding low - sulfur fuel oil, the current market pressure is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. On one hand, domestic production remains low, and the supply in the bonded area is relatively tight. On the other hand, after the tension in overseas diesel eases, the supply of blending components is expected to increase marginally. In the medium - term perspective, due to the relatively abundant remaining production capacity of low - sulfur fuel oil, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract supply release. Moreover, the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low - sulfur fuel oil, and there is significant resistance above the market [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: The trend is expected to be oscillating and weakening [3]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The trend is expected to be oscillating and weakening [3]. - Cross - variety: No strategy is provided [3]. - Cross - period: No strategy is provided [3]. - Spot - futures: No strategy is provided [3]. - Options: No strategy is provided [3].