FICC日报：运价处于下行周期，关注近期马士基PSS调整情况-20250814

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The freight rate is in a downward cycle, and attention should be paid to the recent PSS adjustment of Maersk. The 8 - month contract freight rate has reached its peak and is continuously declining, and the final delivery settlement price is estimated to be around 2100 points. The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. The 12 - month contract still follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to go short on the 10 - month contract when the price is high [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different price quotes for Shanghai - Rotterdam and Shanghai - London routes. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 35 has risen from 1320/2200 to 1390/2340, and Shanghai - London has risen from 1380/2300 to 1415/2370. HPL's quotes for different periods in August and September are stable at 1535/2435 [1]. - Geopolitical factor: China's Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations emphasized the need to maintain the safety of the Red Sea shipping route and promote the political settlement of the Yemen issue [1]. 2. Shipping Capacity - Weekly and monthly average shipping capacity: In August, the remaining 4 - week average weekly capacity to European base ports from China is 308,700 TEU. In September, the monthly average weekly capacity is 302,800 TEU, and in October, it is 286,800 TEU. There are empty sailings and TBNs in August and September, and there are many additional ships in August [2]. 3. Contract Analysis - 8 - month contract: The freight rate has reached its peak and is continuously declining. The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on August 11, 18, and 25. The final delivery settlement price is estimated to be around 2100 points [2]. - 10 - month contract: It is mainly for short - allocation. Normal years see a 20% - 30% lower price in October compared to August. Attention should be paid to the price - following situation of other shipping companies after Maersk's week 35 freight rate drops to $2200/FEU. The two additional ships announced by HPL in October may put pressure on the spot price. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to go short on the EC2510 contract when the price is high, but do not chase short excessively [3][4]. - 12 - month contract: In the fourth quarter, due to Western holidays and the need for shipping companies to prepare for the next - year long - term contract negotiation, the freight rate is usually at a high level. The risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. If it reopens, the seasonal pattern of off - peak and peak seasons may be challenged [4]. 4. Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: As of August 13, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 85,722 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 78,305 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided [5]. - Spot: On August 8, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is $1961/TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) is $1823/FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - US East) is $2792/FEU. On August 11, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 2235.48 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1082.14 points [5]. 5. Container Ship Delivery - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship delivery. As of now, 157 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.2513 million TEU. As of July 27, 2025, 49 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 737,300 TEU, and 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 159,880 TEU [5]. 6. Strategy - Unilateral: The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. - Arbitrage: Go short on the 10 - month contract when the price is high [6].