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缺乏驱动,EG价格震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-14 07:23

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is rated as neutral [3] Core View - The EG price is fluctuating without a clear driving force. In the spot and futures markets, the closing price of the EG main contract and the spot price in the East China market both decreased slightly. The production profit of ethylene - made EG and coal - made syngas EG increased slightly. The port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly. The domestic supply is on an increasing trend, but overseas device operation is not smooth, and the increase in port inventory is lower than expected. The overall supply - demand contradiction in August is not significant [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,406 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton (-0.59%) from the previous trading day. The EG spot price in the East China market was 4,488 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton (-0.40%) from the previous trading day. The EG spot basis in the East China market (based on the 2509 contract) was 76 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 46 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The production profit of coal - made syngas EG was - 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. Domestically, the load of ethylene glycol syngas production has returned to a high level and can be further increased under favorable conditions. Non - coal EO - EG co - production devices have actions/plans to switch from EO to EG, with a moderately high overall load [1][2] International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis on international price differences are provided in the given text Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - In July, the terminal conducted centralized restocking, and the inventory pressure of filament was greatly relieved. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable in the short term. Attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 55.3 tons, an increase of 3.7 tons from the previous period. According to Longzhong data, it was 48.6 tons, an increase of 5.9 tons from the previous period. The total actual arrival at the main ports last week was 9.6 tons, and the port inventory increased slightly. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 14.1 tons, and it is expected that the main ports will continue to accumulate inventory slightly. The balance sheet in August shows a slight inventory accumulation, but the increase in port inventory lacks sustainability [1][2]