中国期货每日简报-20250814

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 13, both equity indices and CGB futures rose; oils and oilseeds led the gains, while energy and chemicals performed weakly [10][12]. - China implements the fiscal interest subsidy policy for personal consumer loans and operating loans in the service industry [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 期货异动 3.1.1 Overview 行情概述 - On August 13, equity indices and CGB futures rose, oils and oilseeds led gains, energy and chemicals were weak. Top gainers were rapeseed oil (3.6% rise, 23.1% open interest increase m - o - m), soybean meal (2.9% rise, 10.2% open interest increase m - o - m), and No.2 soybean (2.7% rise, 0.2% open interest decrease m - o - m). Top decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (5.6% fall, 8.6% open interest increase m - o - m), silicon metal (3.4% fall, 2.0% open interest increase m - o - m), and coking coal (3.0% fall, 4.6% open interest decrease m - o - m) [10][11][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise 上涨品种 3.1.2.1 Rapeseed Oil 菜籽油 & Rapeseed Meal 菜籽粕 & Rapeseed 油菜籽 - On August 13, rapeseed oil rose 3.6% to 10064 yuan/ton, rapeseed meal rose 2.3% to 2723 yuan/ton, and rapeseed rose 2.2% to 5136 yuan/ton. On August 12, China announced a preliminary ruling on anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed, imposing a 75.8% deposit. China's high dependence on Canadian rapeseed imports led to market concerns about supply of rapeseed meal and oil, causing price increases. Short - term market sentiment for rapeseed meal may remain strong, but mid - term substitutes may cause negative feedback, and after October it enters the off - season. Anti - dumping ruling is beneficial to domestic rapeseed oil prices, and factors like expected increase in overseas biodiesel demand for palm and soybean oil, palm oil entering production reduction season after September, and high market expectation of Fed rate cut in September may drive oils to operate strongly later [15][16][19]. 3.1.2.2 Copper 铜 - On August 13, copper rose 0.6% to 79380 yuan/ton. Supply constraints remain and inventory is low, but demand is weakening marginally and U.S. tariffs on copper are unfavorable. Copper may show a fluctuating trend. Copper ore and blister copper processing fees are low, raw material supply is tight, and new low long - term processing fees increase smelter production cut risks. Downstream replenishment willingness is weakening, copper inventory is rising, and price upward momentum is weakening [26][27][29]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop 下跌品种 3.1.3.1 SCFIS(Europe) - On August 13, SCFIS(Europe) fell 5.6% to 1333.1 points. Prices fluctuate, and attention should be paid to shorting the October and December contracts on rallies. The China - U.S. economic and trade talks in Stockholm suspended the 24% tariff for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025, retaining 10%. In weeks 34 - 35, shipping companies face increasing cargo solicitation pressure, and ship transfer to the Europe route in October may exacerbate pessimistic expectations. MSK freight rate fell sharply this week, and the SCFIS index at the end of August will narrow the disk discount. August - September is the traditional price decline cycle, and full shipping schedules may bring downward pressure to break below $2000/FEU. Attention should be paid to HPL's additional ships and shipping companies' suspension plans around the National Day [31][33][34]. 3.2 China News 中国要闻 3.2.1 Macro News 宏观新闻 - On August 12, the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy on Personal Consumer Loans". The scope includes single - transaction consumption under 50,000 yuan and key - area consumption over 50,000 yuan. For consumption over 50,000 yuan, the subsidy is capped at 50,000 yuan. After the policy expires, extending the period and expanding the scope may be studied based on implementation effects [38][39]. 3.2.2 Industry News 行业新闻 - On August 13, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48% to a nearly 4 - year high, and the two - market turnover exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 269.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day, returning to above 2 trillion yuan after 114 trading days [39]. - The Korea Exchange will launch semiconductor index futures and other derivatives [39].