Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, the price of natural rubber rebounded, and the shipping index declined. The production of semi-steel tires remained stable, and the operation rate of all-steel tires increased. The import demand from Europe and the United States was advanced due to tariffs and anti-dumping measures. Long-term globalization and proximity to major consumer markets in Europe and the United States are effective ways for tire companies to avoid trade barriers. Chinese leading tire companies are expected to compete in international markets with cost control and brand influence [58]. Summary by Section Cost End - In July 2025, the average price of butadiene was 9,116.30 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.14% and a year-on-year decrease of 29.87%. The average price of natural rubber was 1,770.65 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month increase of 3.96% and a year-on-year increase of 4.46%. The average price of styrene-butadiene rubber was 11,964.13 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 0.77% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.65%. The average price of carbon black was 6,267.74 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 2.30% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.25%. The average price of nylon cord fabric was 17,971.40 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 2.33% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.31% [4][5]. - In June 2025, the natural rubber production of ANRPC member countries was 883,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.37% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.94%. China's natural rubber production was 103,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.05% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.37%. China's natural rubber consumption was 619,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.45% and a year-on-year increase of 3.80%. China's import volume of natural rubber was 436,300 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.24% and a year-on-year increase of 29.43% [15]. - In July 2025, the average value of the Baltic Freight Index (FBX) was 2,531.25 points, a month-on-month decrease of 25.46% and a year-on-year decrease of 50.19%. The CCFI (East Coast of the United States route) index was 1,247.30, a year-on-year decrease of 30.43% and a month-on-month decrease of 7.31%. The CCFI (West Coast of the United States route) index was 983.60, a year-on-year decrease of 40.68% and a month-on-month decrease of 14.44% [19]. Production End - In June 2025, China's output of rubber tire casings was 102.749 million pieces, a year-on-year increase of 10.01%. In the first half of 2025, the cumulative output of rubber tire casings in China was 590.694 million pieces, a year-on-year increase of 12.21%. In July 2025, the output of all-steel tires was 12.75 million pieces, a month-on-month increase of 1.03% and a year-on-year increase of 7.78%. The output of semi-steel tires was 56.97 million pieces, a month-on-month increase of 3.15% and a year-on-year increase of 0.04% [24]. - In July 2025, the average monthly operation rate of Chinese semi-steel tires was 73.80%, a month-on-month decrease of 3.25 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 5.41 percentage points. The average monthly operation rate of all-steel tires was 64.61%, a month-on-month increase of 0.65 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 7.58 percentage points [30]. Demand End - From January to June 2025, China's cumulative export of new pneumatic rubber tires was 349 million pieces, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 5.40%. In June 2025, China exported 29.3664 million passenger car tires and 10.8498 million truck and bus tires. In the first half of 2025, China's cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 2.3347 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 5.34%, which supported the production and sales of tire companies [34]. - In the original equipment market as of the end of June, the demand for semi-steel tires was generally stable, with a sharp decline in Europe and the United States, while the Chinese market remained positive due to automobile subsidy policies. In the all-steel tire market, the North American market continued to deteriorate, and the European market confirmed growth in the second quarter. In the replacement market, affected by tariff expectations, sales and imports in Europe and the United States increased, and overall demand rose. The Chinese market remained stable [38]. - In June 2025, China's gasoline consumption was 11.7357 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.08%. Diesel consumption was 16.0427 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.92%. In June 2025, China's heavy truck market sold about 97,900 vehicles, a month-on-month increase of 10.25% and a year-on-year increase of 37.14% [41]. - In July 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.5%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.3 percentage points. The road freight rate index was 105 points, a month-on-month decrease of 0.06% and a year-on-year increase of 1.89%. The road transport market is expected to maintain a stable operation in the second half of the year, with the freight rate index possibly experiencing a slight oscillatory correction [46]. - According to EIA statistics, in July 2025, the average daily consumption of motor vehicle refined oil in the United States was 8,941.75 thousand barrels, a month-on-month decrease of 2.80% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.04%. The average daily consumption of diesel was 3,509.75 thousand barrels, a month-on-month decrease of 6.15% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.09% [47]. - In June 2025, the number of registered passenger cars in Europe was 1.2437 million, a month-on-month increase of 11.72% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.13%. In the first half of 2025, the cumulative number was 6.8155 million, a year-on-year decrease of 0.92%. In the second quarter of 2025, the sales volume of the European replacement tire market decreased by 3.5% year-on-year to 57.044 million pieces. Among them, the sales volume of passenger car tires decreased by 4% year-on-year to 51.609 million pieces, and the shipment volume of truck and bus tires decreased by 5% year-on-year to 2.452 million pieces [55]. Industry News - Michelin's operating profit in the first half of the year decreased by 18%. General Shares' net profit attributable to the parent company in the first half of the year decreased significantly. In July, China's automobile production and sales increased significantly year-on-year. From January to June 2025, the import volume of rubber tires in the United States increased by 6.8% year-on-year. Sailun Tire acquired 100% of the equity of Bridgestone Shenyang Factory. Zhongce Rubber changed the use of some raised funds [56][57]. Monthly Summary and Outlook - In July 2025, the price of natural rubber increased, and there is an expectation of further increase. The shipping cost decreased month-on-month and may continue to fall after the impact of tariffs and geopolitics cools down. The production of semi-steel tires remained stable, with some inventory pressure, while all-steel tires had a good inventory situation. Domestically, logistics demand was stable, and automobile production and sales decreased month-on-month, expected to remain stable overall. Overseas, the replacement market in Europe and the United States was better than the original equipment market, but export demand may be under pressure due to international trade frictions [59].
轮胎主要原材料价格月度变化-20250814
Donghai Securities·2025-08-14 08:25