瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20250814

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage of slight increase in supply and demand, with cost support and improved supply expectations due to policy influence. It is recommended to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum fundamentals may be in a situation of slight increase in supply and weak demand, with accumulated industrial inventory. The option market sentiment is slightly bullish, and it is also recommended to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The cast aluminum fundamentals may be in a stage of slight contraction in supply and weak demand during the off - season, with accumulated industrial inventory. It is recommended to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,715.00 yuan/ton, down 75.00 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,240.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan. The main - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai aluminum is 25.00 yuan/ton, up 15.00 yuan; that of alumina is 9.00 yuan/ton, up 35.00 yuan [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 13,505.00 hands to 202,961.00 hands, while those of alumina increased by 69,355.00 hands to 158,619.00 hands [2]. - The LME aluminum cancelled warrants remained unchanged at 14,225.00 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 1,525.00 tons to 478,625.00 tons. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation is 2,608.50 US dollars/ton, down 14.00 US dollars [2]. - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 20,140.00 yuan/ton, down 60.00 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is 55.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum SHFE inventory decreased by 3,913.00 tons to 113,614.00 tons, and the Shanghai aluminum SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 2,830.00 tons to 57,946.00 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum price is 20,710.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 20,820.00 yuan/ton, down 140.00 yuan [2]. - The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 20,350.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 500.00 yuan to 210.00 yuan/ton, and the basis of electrolytic aluminum increased by 25.00 yuan to - 5.00 yuan/ton [2]. - The Shanghai Wumaoh aluminum premium is 20.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan; the LME aluminum premium is - 4.91 US dollars/ton, down 0.38 US dollars [2]. - The basis of alumina decreased by 10.00 yuan to - 20.00 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production is 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the national alumina operating rate is 84.01%, up 1.52 percentage points; the total alumina capacity utilization rate is 84.75%, up 0.45 percentage points [2]. - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 696.19 million tons, down 23.83 million tons; the alumina supply - demand balance is 27.14 million tons, up 52.40 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 16,300.00 yuan/ton, up 100.00 yuan; that in Shandong metal scrap is 15,900.00 yuan/ton, up 150.00 yuan [2]. - China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments is 155,616.27 tons, down 4,084.65 tons; the export volume is 64.33 tons, down 8.11 tons [2]. - The alumina export volume is 17.00 million tons, down 4.00 million tons; the import volume is 10.13 million tons, up 3.38 million tons [2]. - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is 27.72 million tons, down 1.79 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 53.20 million tons, up 2.60 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The primary aluminum import volume is 192,314.50 tons, down 30,781.00 tons; the export volume is 19,570.72 tons, down 12,523.35 tons [2]. - The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,523.20 million tons, up 2.50 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum operating rate is 97.78%, up 0.10 percentage points [2]. - The aluminum product production is 587.37 million tons, up 11.17 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 54.20 million tons, up 5.20 million tons [2]. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.58 million tons, up 0.16 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The total built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126.00 million tons, down 1.10 million tons; the National Real Estate Prosperity Index is 93.60, down 0.11 [2]. - The aluminum alloy production is 166.90 million tons, up 2.40 million tons; the automobile production is 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 7.85%, up 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 8.25%, down 0.03 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main at - the - money option is 9.27%, up 0.0028 percentage points; the call - put ratio is 1.16, down 0.0437 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Traders have fully priced in a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in September. The US Treasury debt has exceeded $37 trillion for the first time [2]. - In the first seven months of this year, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. At the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, and the stock of social financing scale increased by 9% [2]. - Four departments including the central bank explained two discount policies, which are an innovative exploration of fiscal and financial cooperation to boost consumption. After the policy expires, an effect evaluation will be carried out [2]. - In 2025, 188 billion yuan of investment subsidies for equipment renewal supported by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds have been allocated, supporting about 8,400 projects and driving total investment of over 1 trillion yuan [2].