Group 1: Monetary Supply and Financing - In July, the new social financing scale reached 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.39 trillion yuan year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9%[2] - M1 growth accelerated to 5.6% in July, up from 4.6% in the previous month, marking the highest growth since January 2023[3] - M2 growth improved to 8.8% in July, up from 8.3% in June, with the M2-M1 gap narrowing to 3.2%[3] Group 2: Loan Demand and Government Financing - Government bond issuance from January to July reached 890 billion yuan, accounting for 75% of the annual issuance plan, significantly higher than the five-year average of 47%[3] - Corporate loan demand showed a contraction, with July's corporate loans decreasing by 700 billion yuan year-on-year, the lowest level in five years[4] - Residential loans in July also fell below the five-year average, with long-term and short-term loans decreasing by 1.1 trillion yuan and 3.8 trillion yuan respectively[4] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Risks - Overall liquidity has improved, but credit remains volatile due to seasonal factors, with only a slight decline in new loans compared to June[5] - The government is currently in a process of leveraging while the private sector is de-leveraging, necessitating improved efficiency in fiscal spending to stabilize demand[5] - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic macroeconomic policies and the possibility of slower government bond issuance if special treasury bonds are not issued[5]
7月金融数据点评:M1同比增速持续攀升
Great Wall Securities·2025-08-14 09:02