Guoxin Securities·2025-08-14 09:19Investment Rating - The investment rating for the liquor sector is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that external positive factors are gradually increasing, with liquor sales improving since August. The second quarter saw a significant decline in consumption scenarios due to policy impacts, but the situation has started to recover with normal personal consumption and gatherings [2][3] - The performance of Moutai in the mid-year report shows resilience, reflecting the industry's focus on maintaining market order amid demand pressures. Moutai's revenue for the first half of 2025 increased by 9.2% year-on-year, indicating a strategic adjustment in product structure and market investment [2][3] - The report anticipates that the valuation of the liquor sector will enter a phase of oscillation and recovery, with expectations of improved demand and inventory stabilization as the market adjusts to new consumption patterns [3] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The report highlights that the liquor sector has faced significant demand pressure, but the worst phase appears to have passed, with expectations for improved sales during the upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays [2][3] - The report notes that the price of Moutai has remained stable around 1900 yuan, with a projected year-on-year decline in price expected to bottom out [3][9] 2. Company Performance - Moutai's mid-year performance reflects a 9.2% increase in revenue, with strategic adjustments to product offerings and market engagement [2][18] - Wuliangye has seen its price drop to approximately 845 yuan, indicating pressure on high-end liquor demand, but there are signs of recovery in sales as consumer behavior improves [19] - Luzhou Laojiao's price for its premium product has stabilized at around 835 yuan, demonstrating the company's ability to manage supply and demand effectively [20] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a portfolio including Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Gujing Gongjiu for August [4]