Tianfeng Securities·2025-08-14 09:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [5][16]. Core Insights - The company's main business is developing steadily, with a projected revenue growth of 37% from 2018 to 2024, while maintaining a gross profit of around 5.5 billion yuan [1]. - The company is expected to enhance its net profit through equity disposals and the issuance of REITs, with an estimated investment income of approximately 1.793 billion yuan from the sale of a 25% stake in a subsidiary [3]. - The report has revised the 2025 forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company to 5.2 billion yuan, up from the previous estimate of 4.7 billion yuan, while introducing forecasts for 2026 and 2027 at 3.5 billion yuan each [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to reach 106.65 billion yuan in 2025, with a slight growth rate of 0.97% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase by 33.1% in 2025, reaching 5.2 billion yuan [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.72 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.66 [4]. Business Segments - The logistics and transportation sector is experiencing stable growth, with annualized revenue growth rates of 6% for agency and related services, and 6% for professional logistics [1]. - The e-commerce segment is showing rapid growth, with revenue and operating profit annualized growth rates of 28% and 5%, respectively, likely driven by the expansion of cross-border e-commerce [1][2]. Investment Opportunities - The partnership with DHL through the joint venture, China Foreign Trade and DHL International Air Express, is a significant contributor to the company's investment income, although future growth may be impacted by slowing cross-border e-commerce and trade [2]. - The issuance of REITs is expected to add approximately 390 million yuan to the company's net profit in 2025 [3].