KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-08-14 09:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The introduction of fiscal interest subsidies is expected to lower financing costs, enhancing consumer willingness to spend among price-sensitive customers [3][4] - The two subsidy policies are designed to stimulate consumption by directly reducing the financing costs for consumers and businesses, thereby activating consumption potential from both supply and demand sides [3][4] - The policies are broad in scope, covering a wide range of consumer credit and service industry entities, with a focus on real demand customers [4] - The fiscal subsidies are expected to stabilize bank interest margins and mitigate risks associated with retail lending, preventing excessive competition among banks [5][6] Summary by Sections Policy Implementation - The fiscal interest subsidies will be funded by local and central governments, with the central government covering 90% of the costs [4] - The subsidy rate is set at 1%, with specific limits on the amount eligible for subsidies based on loan size and type [4] Impact on Banking Sector - The policies are anticipated to protect banks' interest margins while avoiding a price war in consumer loans, which had previously pressured banks' profitability [5] - The expected increase in genuine credit demand will help reduce the incidence of fund misappropriation and improve retail credit risk [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the favorable conditions created by the fiscal subsidies will benefit national banks, particularly those with strong retail customer bases, such as CITIC Bank, Agricultural Bank, China Construction Bank, and China Merchants Bank [6] - The potential for policy extension and expansion may further enhance the growth of consumer credit and stabilize pricing in the banking sector [6]