山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250814

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trade agreements are reached in batches, the Russia - Ukraine talks are about to start, the demand for hedging is falling; the risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, employment is weakening, inflation is moderate, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising. It is expected that precious metals will be slightly stronger in the short - term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1]. - The gold price trend is the anchor of the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly increased. The strategy is that the conservative investors should wait and see, while the aggressive investors can buy low and sell high, and should manage positions well and set stop - loss and take - profit strictly [5][6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold 3.1.1 Core Logic - Short - term trade agreements are reached in batches, Russia - Ukraine talks are about to start, leading to a decline in hedging demand; the risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, employment is weakening, inflation is moderate, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising [1]. 3.1.2 Attributes - Hedging Attribute: US - China tariff truce is extended by 90 days, and the US and Russia are "very close" to reaching an agreement [1]. - Monetary Attribute: US July CPI inflation is moderate, core CPI rises year - on - year. July employment growth is weaker than expected, and the labor market deteriorates. Market expectation of the Fed's September interest rate cut probability soars from about 40% to over 80%, and the expected number of interest rate cuts within the year rises from 1 to 2 - 3 times. The US dollar index and US Treasury bond yields rebound [1]. - Commodity Attribute: The CRB commodity index rebounds under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1]. 3.1.3 Price and Related Data - International Prices: Comex gold主力合约收盘价 is $3407.00 per ounce, up $7.40 (0.22%) from the previous day, down $24.80 (- 0.72%) from last week; London gold is $3364.40 per ounce, up $21.10 (0.63%) from the previous day, down $7.60 (- 0.23%) from last week [2]. - Domestic Prices: Shanghai gold主力收盘价 is 778.70 yuan per gram, up 0.98 yuan (0.13%) from the previous day, down 6.32 yuan (- 0.81%) from last week; Gold T + D收盘价 is 775.10 yuan per gram, up 0.39 yuan (0.05%) from the previous day, down 6.92 yuan (- 0.88%) from last week [2]. - Other Data: Such as basis, spread, ratio, position, inventory, etc. For example, the net long position of top 10 futures companies in Shanghai gold is 145,591.00, with a decrease of 1,735.00 [2][3]. 3.2 Silver 3.2.1 Influencing Factors - The gold price trend is the anchor of the silver price. Capital and inventory factors affect silver prices, with CFTC silver net long and iShare silver ETF slightly reducing positions, and recent explicit inventory slightly increasing [5]. 3.2.2 Price and Related Data - International Prices: Comex silver主力合约收盘价 is $38.55 per ounce, up $0.61 (1.61%) from the previous day, up $0.61 (1.62%) from last week; London silver is $38.61 per ounce, up $0.91 (2.43%) from the previous day, up $0.83 (2.20%) from last week [6]. - Domestic Prices: Shanghai silver主力收盘价 is 9286.00 yuan per kilogram, down 14.00 yuan (- 0.15%) from the previous day, up 28.00 yuan (0.30%) from last week; Silver T + D收盘价 is 9274.00 yuan per kilogram, down 4.00 yuan (- 0.04%) from the previous day, up 50.00 yuan (0.54%) from last week [6]. - Other Data: Such as basis, spread, position, inventory, etc. For example, the net long position of top 10 futures companies in Shanghai silver is 152,740.00, with an increase of 4,363.00 [6][7]. 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - Federal Reserve Data: Federal fund target rate upper limit is 4.50%, down 0.25 from the previous value; discount rate is 4.50%, down 0.25 from the previous value; reserve balance interest rate is 4.40%, down 0.25 from the previous value; total Fed assets are $66918.54 billion, down $7.62 billion (- 0.00%) from the previous value [8]. - Inflation Data: CPI year - on - year is 2.70%, up 0.30; core CPI year - on - year is 3.10%, up 0.30; etc. [10]. - Economic Growth Data: GDP annualized year - on - year is 1.90%, with no change; GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter is 3.00%, up 3.50 [10]. - Labor Market Data: Unemployment rate is 4.20%, up 0.10; non - farm employment monthly change is 7.30 million, up 0.59 million [10]. - Other Data: Such as real yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds, US dollar index, US Treasury bond spread, etc. [8][10][11].