钢材、铁矿石日报：现实矛盾累积，钢矿弱势下行-20250814

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar weakened and declined by 1.82% daily, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. The demand for rebar weakened as expected, while the supply remained relatively stable. The off - season fundamentals continued to deteriorate, inventory increased significantly, and steel prices continued to be under pressure. However, the recent significant increase in costs limited the downside space. Under the dominance of bearish sentiment, steel prices are expected to show a weakening trend in oscillation, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil weakened and declined by 1.18% daily, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. Thanks to the improvement in demand, the supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coils has improved, and the inventory increase has narrowed. However, the sustainability of demand improvement is questionable, and the supply is expected to pick up. The fundamentals are difficult to achieve a substantial improvement. The relatively positive factor is that the cost has increased significantly, limiting the downside space. Under the game of long and short factors, the hot - rolled coil price is expected to continue the oscillation trend, and attention should be paid to the steel mill production situation [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore weakened and declined by 2.94% daily, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. At present, the fundamentals of iron ore are running smoothly under the situation of weak supply and demand, and the steel mills' profitability is good, with acceptable demand resilience, providing strong support for the ore price. The relatively negative factor is that the valuation is relatively high, and the short - term trend will maintain high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - From January to July 2025, the national railway completed a fixed - asset investment of 433 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. In July, the national railway completed a passenger volume of 455 million, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%; the passenger turnover was 177.069 billion person - kilometers, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. The freight volume was 452 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the freight turnover was 304.217 billion ton - kilometers, a year - on - year increase of 6.5% [6]. - The global container shipping volume is expected to increase by 3% year - on - year in 2025 and 2026 respectively. The global container fleet may not scrap any capacity in 2025. The global ship delivery volume is expected to be 3.1 million TEUs in 2024, 1.8 million TEUs in 2025, and 1.6 million TEUs in 2026. Currently, there are 9.3 million TEUs in global ship orders, accounting for 29% of the global fleet, up from 27% in 2024 [7]. - In early August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.74 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.074 million tons, a daily output increase of 4.7% month - on - month; 19.14 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.914 million tons, a daily output increase of 3.2% month - on - month; 20.05 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.005 million tons, a daily output decrease of 4.1% month - on - month [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,290 yuan, 3,320 yuan, and 3,402 yuan respectively, with price drops of 40 yuan, 30 yuan, and 18 yuan respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,450 yuan, 3,430 yuan, and 3,502 yuan respectively, with price drops of 20 yuan, 10 yuan, and 11 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 3,080 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,150 yuan. The coil - rebar price difference was 160 yuan, and the rebar - scrap price difference was 1,140 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 771 yuan, a drop of 17 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 783 yuan, unchanged. The ocean freight from Australia was 10.10 yuan, a drop of 0.28 yuan; from Brazil was 24.86 yuan, an increase of 0.11 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 102.79 yuan, a drop of 0.47 yuan; the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 103.30 yuan, a drop of 0.70 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,189 yuan, a decline of 1.82%, with a trading volume of 1,283,713 lots, an increase of 47,285 lots, and a position of 1,636,544 lots, a decrease of 16,049 lots [11]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,432 yuan, a decline of 1.18%, with a trading volume of 551,741 lots, an increase of 83,037 lots, and a position of 1,291,831 lots, a decrease of 62,005 lots [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 775.0 yuan, a decline of 2.94%, with a trading volume of 331,007 lots, an increase of 133,769 lots, and a position of 451,957 lots, a decrease of 462 lots [11]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, etc.), and steel mill production situation (including 247 - sample steel - mill blast furnace start - up rate, 87 - independent electric - furnace start - up rate, etc.) [13][18][28]. 后市研判 - Rebar: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. The weekly output of rebar decreased slightly by 0.73 tons, but the profit per ton of the variety is good, and the supply pressure is still likely to increase. The demand has weakened, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 20.85 tons. The steel price is under pressure, but the cost increase limits the downside space. It is expected to show a weakening trend in oscillation, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [37]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern has improved. The weekly output increased by 0.70 tons, and the supply is expected to pick up. The demand has improved, but the sustainability is questionable. The price is expected to continue the oscillation trend, and attention should be paid to the steel mill production situation [38]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern has changed little. The terminal consumption of ore has declined, but the steel mills' profitability is good, providing support for the ore price. The supply is weak. The short - term trend will maintain high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [39].