冠通每日交易策略-20250814

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For Shanghai Copper, with the possibility of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September, increased copper concentrate imports, and stable TC/RC fees, the supply is sufficient. However, due to high - temperature weather and weak downstream demand, the overall demand is tepid. The dollar's low - level oscillation boosts non - ferrous metals, and the price remains in a narrow range waiting for market drivers [7]. - For Lithium Carbonate, after the accident at the US Albemarle's lithium factory and the suspension of production at CATL's mine, the supply is expected to shrink. Although the market sentiment has cooled recently, the supply reduction eases the supply - demand pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [8][9]. - For Crude Oil, at the end of the seasonal travel peak, the overall oil inventory increases. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, which may exacerbate the supply surplus in the fourth quarter. The possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine and the potential slowdown of the US economy increase the medium - to - long - term downward pressure on oil prices, but there are still uncertainties [10]. - For Asphalt, the supply is expected to decrease in August. The downstream demand is affected by funds and weather, and the inventory is at a low level. With the weakening of cost support, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the near future [11][12]. - For PP, the downstream demand recovery is slow, the inventory pressure is high, and the cost decreases. With new capacity coming online, it is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - For Plastic, the开工 rate is at a moderately high level, the downstream demand is in the off - season, and the inventory pressure is large. With new capacity and falling crude oil prices, it is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15]. - For PVC, the supply increases, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is high, and the real estate market is still in adjustment. It is expected to oscillate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16]. - For Coking Coal, after the exchange's measures to limit positions and increase handling fees, the market sentiment cools. With the increase in supply expectations and the impact of downstream production restrictions, the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [18]. - For Urea, the supply fluctuates slightly, the demand is weak due to the end of agricultural demand and the impact of the parade on industrial demand, and the inventory accumulates. The market is in a supply - demand - loose pattern, and the price is expected to be weakly sorted [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 14, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Coking coal dropped by over 6%, coke by over 4%, and polysilicon by over 3%. Some contracts such as caustic soda rose. Among stock index futures, IH rose by 0.48%, while IF, IC, and IM declined. All bond futures contracts declined [4]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:15 on August 14, contracts such as CSI 300 2509 had capital inflows, while contracts like CSI 1000 2509 had capital outflows [4].