瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20250814

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The increase in the previous period's hog farming end's slaughter volume has pressured the spot price. However, the price decline has triggered the farming end's resistance sentiment, and the short - term slaughter rhythm may change, leading to a stable adjustment of the spot price. Technically, the hog 2511 contract has corrected, but due to policy guidance, the long - term supply pressure expectation has decreased marginally, and with the expected transition of demand from weak to strong, the decline space of hog futures prices is limited. It is recommended to wait for the correction and lightly open long positions, paying attention to the slaughter and secondary fattening situations [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - The closing price of the main hog futures contract is 13,900 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan; the position of the main contract is 64,710 lots, down 1,520 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 430 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 16,753 lots, up 2,539 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Price - The hog price in Henan Zhumadian is 13,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin Siping is 13,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in Guangdong Yunfu is 15,100 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the main hog basis is - 200 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly hog inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, up 7160,000 heads; the monthly inventory of breeding sows is 4,0430,000 heads, up 10,000 heads [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly year - on - year CPI is 0%, down 0.1 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,090 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,394.12 yuan/ton, down 0.98 yuan; the DCE hog feed cost index is 934.33, down 5.28; the monthly output of feed is 29,377,000 tons, up 1,756,000 tons; the weekly price of binary breeding sows is 1,638 yuan/head, unchanged; the weekly breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 134.14 yuan/head, down 17.36 yuan; the weekly breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised hogs is 45.13 yuan/head, up 1.28 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork is 90,000 tons, unchanged; the weekly average price of white - striped chicken in the main production areas is 13.9 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises is 3,0060,000 heads, down 2100,000 heads; the monthly value of catering revenue in total social retail sales of consumer goods is 470.76 billion yuan, up 12.94 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On August 14, 2025, the daily national hog slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises was 264,655 heads, a 3.36% decrease from the previous day. In the supply side, the rhythm of weight - reducing slaughter at the farming end accelerated in the first ten - day period, increasing market supply. However, after the continuous price decline, there are signs of the farming end's resistance sentiment, and the slaughter rhythm may slow down again. In the demand side, the supply of hogs is sufficient, and the demand in some areas has recovered. The operating rate of slaughterhouses has increased slightly, but the high temperature still suppresses people's willingness to buy pork, limiting the recovery amplitude. It is expected that the demand will improve significantly when students start school in the second ten - day period and the double - festival stockpiling starts later [2].