Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-14 10:09Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Fundamentally, zinc ore imports at home and abroad are on the rise, zinc ore processing fees are continuously increasing, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, leading to further recovery of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously shut - down capacities are resuming production, resulting in a faster growth in supply. Currently, the import loss continues to widen, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, the downstream is in the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has declined year - on - year. Although the zinc price has dropped recently and downstream enterprises are purchasing on demand at low prices, overall trading remains dull. Domestic social inventories continue to accumulate, and the spot premium has declined. Overseas, LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the strong LME zinc price has driven up the domestic zinc price. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. Attention should be paid to the resistance at the 23,000 mark. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,480 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the 09 - 10 contract spread of Shanghai Zinc is - 15 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,811.5 dollars/ton, down 36.5 dollars. The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 209,862 lots, down 3,627 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 9,808 lots, down 94 lots; the Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 17,097 tons, up 905 tons. The SHFE inventory is 65,917 tons, up 4,193 tons; the LME inventory is 78,475 tons, down 1,075 tons [3]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,510 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,390 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 30 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 1.5 dollars/ton, up 3.26 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,190 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. The global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. The zinc social inventory is 99,200 tons, up 8,000 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; the housing completion area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters. The automobile production is 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 13.61%, down 0.4%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 13.61%, down 0.4%. The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 7.71%, up 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 13.21%, unchanged [3]. Industry News - China's social financing scale increment from January to July 2025 totaled 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, and the new social financing in July was 1.16 trillion yuan. In July, RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, new RMB deposits were 500 billion yuan, and household deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan. The M2 - M1 gap was 3.2 percentage points, 0.5 percentage points narrower than last month. Trump said he would announce the new Fed chairperson earlier and has narrowed the candidates to three or four. The 188 billion yuan investment subsidy for equipment renewal supported by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2025 has been allocated, supporting about 8,400 projects and driving total investment of over 1 trillion yuan [3].