Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-14 10:08Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The demand for lead in the current market is mainly concentrated in the lead-acid battery sector. As the traditional consumption peak season approaches, downstream enterprises' willingness to stock up for production should theoretically strengthen, but the actual spot trading volume is average when prices rise, and the market is still in a wait-and-see state. The overall demand is still in a slow recovery stage, and the consumption increment in August is expected to be weak due to factors such as tariffs and front-loaded consumption. However, as the peak season progresses, there is a possibility of demand improvement. The inventory has shown a slight downward trend recently, and the number of warehouse receipts has also decreased, indicating an overall improvement in demand. Although the demand has not effectively driven inventory depletion, it is expected to gradually strengthen, providing some support for lead prices. It is recommended to go long on SHFE lead at low prices this week [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract was 16,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan; the 3-month LME lead quotation was 1,988 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 28 US dollars. The price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts of SHFE lead was -20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The SHFE lead open interest was 98,794 lots, an increase of 3,302 lots. The net position of the top 20 in SHFE lead was -2,542 lots, an increase of 1,231 lots. The SHFE lead warehouse receipts were 61,784 tons, a decrease of 751 tons. The SHFE inventory was 62,334 tons, a decrease of 949 tons; the LME lead inventory was 262,225 tons, a decrease of 25 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network was 16,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market was 16,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was -70 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan; the LME lead cash - 3 - month spread was -42.01 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.28 US dollars [3] Upstream Situation - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,154 yuan, an increase of 201 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan. The WBMS lead supply - demand balance was -18,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons. The number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 34.15%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, a decrease of 67,500 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 75.65%, a decrease of 1.84 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 33,800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was -60 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16,400 tons, an increase of 48,800 tons; the global lead ore output was 399,700 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 119,700 tons, an increase of 24,800 tons [3] Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, a decrease of 1,021.76 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, an increase of 223.33 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 540 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of the waste battery market was 10,112.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 92.86 yuan/ton [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41.45 million, a decrease of 425,000. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 19,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The Shenwan third - level industry index of batteries and other cells was 1,901.83 points, an increase of 30.7 points. The monthly output of new energy vehicles was 730,000, an increase of 166,600; the monthly output of automobiles was 2.8086 million, an increase of 166,600 [3] Industry News - The Trump administration is considering 11 candidates for the Fed Chair, and Trump said the number of candidates is down to three or four and will appoint a new Fed Chair soon. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said more evidence of inflation improvement is needed, and every meeting is a live meeting; Fed nominee Milan said there is no evidence that tariffs cause inflation. Traders have fully priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in September. The US unadjusted CPI annual rate in July was 2.7%, unchanged from the previous month; the unadjusted core CPI annual rate rose to a five - month high of 3.1%. After the data release, traders increased their bets on a September rate cut, which is positive for the non - ferrous metals sector. Trump said Russia will face consequences if it doesn't stop the conflict and hopes to have a second meeting with Putin. European leaders urged Trump to pressure Putin to agree to a cease - fire and meet with Zelensky. If a cease - fire agreement is reached, Ukraine's European allies may consider relaxing sanctions on Russia [3]