苹果产业日报-20250814

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current low volume of Gala apples on the market and low old - crop inventories boost short - term apple prices, but the price increase may slow down after a large number of Gala apples are listed. The AP2510 contract has entered an adjustment phase, and it is recommended to take profits and exit long positions on rallies [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract is 8,123 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract is 81,632 lots, a decrease of 1,945 lots. The number of apple warehouse receipts is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 3,158 lots, an increase of 500 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80) is 4 yuan/jin, with no change; the spot price in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 4 yuan/jin, with no change; the spot price in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.3 yuan/jin, with no change; the spot price in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial) is 4 yuan/jin, with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The weekly wholesale price of apples is 9.69 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.51 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg. The storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0.09, a decrease of 0.01; the total national apple cold - storage inventory is 53.39 million tons, a decrease of 8.22 million tons. The monthly export volume of apples is 40,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly export value is 4,330.8 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,955,488 million US dollars, a decrease of 245,562.17 million US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.5 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 10.25 yuan/kg, the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.88 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg, and the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.58 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg. The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 8.4, an increase of 1; the daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 11, an increase of 1; the daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 16, an increase of 0.4 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 20.22%, a decrease of 0.19%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 20.23%, a decrease of 0.18% [2] Industry News - On August 14, 2025, paper - bagged Gala apples in the western main producing areas are in the critical color - turning period, with poor color - turning and low purchasing enthusiasm from buyers. In the Shandong producing area, the supply of Luli and Jinduhong apples continues to increase, and buyers pick and choose. The inventory of Fuji apples has chaotic transactions, and the quality of farmers' apples is average, with common price - cutting transactions. According to preliminary estimates by Mysteel based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple output is expected to be 3,736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season [2]