Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-14 10:36Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - V2509 fell 1.31% to close at 4,970 yuan/ton. The PVC supply may show an upward trend as the operating load gradually increases after the new production capacity is put into operation in August. The domestic downstream demand is in the off - season with only rigid procurement. The anti - dumping policy release is delayed, but the rainy season still hinders overseas demand. The domestic calcium carbide supply and demand tend to be loose this week, and the price may fall; the ethylene US dollar market has sufficient supply, and the price may remain stable. Currently, the V2509 contract has a small premium, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly in the range of 4,900 - 5,100 yuan/ton in the short term. For V2601, pay attention to the support around 5,040 yuan/ton and the resistance around 5,300 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,970 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan; the trading volume was 632,530 lots, up 17,816 lots; the open interest was 412,456 lots, down 66,122 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 835,187 lots, up 9,076 lots; the short positions were 864,943 lots, up 8,752 lots; the net long positions were - 29,756 lots, up 324 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,125 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,922.69 yuan/ton, down 2.31 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,952.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 116 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2,623.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2,403 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 521 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 548 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 189 US dollars/ton, down 22 US dollars; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 198 US dollars/ton, down 21 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC was 79.46%, up 2.62 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 78.65%, up 2.62 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 81.49%, up 2.5 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 48.08 tons, up 3.28 tons; the total social inventory in the East China region was 42.37 tons, up 2.89 tons; the total social inventory in the South China region was 5.71 tons, up 0.39 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.6, down 0.12. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 30,364.32 million square meters, up 7,180.71 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 633,321.43 million square meters, up 8,301.89 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 244.755 billion yuan, up 53.2069 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 29.15%, up 0.18 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 22.94%, up 0.13 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 24.09%, up 2.68 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 24.1%, up 2.87 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On August 14, the market prices of PVC SG5 in Shanghai, Changzhou, and Hangzhou decreased by 0 - 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with prices ranging from 4,800 to 4,930 yuan/ton. From August 2 to August 8, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 79.46%, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. As of August 14, the PVC social inventory increased by 4.53% month - on - month to 811,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.72% [3].