瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-20250814
- Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Supply is increasing as some polysilicon enterprises that previously cut production or halted operations due to losses or equipment maintenance are resuming production with improved market sentiment and policy - driven "anti - involution" measures. Demand is weakening as downstream battery enterprises have different acceptance levels for silicon wafer price hikes, some small and medium - sized battery enterprises have low procurement willingness, the overall silicon wafer industry's operating rate has decreased slightly, and component enterprises are more cautious in purchasing polysilicon. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to adjust this week, with prices likely to show a volatile trend. It is recommended to continue short - selling operations mainly, and the current operation suggestions are to wait and see or layout put options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 50,430 yuan/ton, down 860 yuan; the main contract position is 127,757 lots, down 4,706 lots; the 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,445 yuan, down 75 yuan; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 41,755 yuan/ton, down 935 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 47,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of polysilicon is - 3,430 yuan/ton, up 860 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of polycrystalline silicon (cauliflower material) is 30 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of polycrystalline silicon (dense material) is 36 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of polycrystalline silicon (re - feeding material) is 34.8 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 8,675 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 95,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,113 tons, up 320 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.3 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 6.7386 million kilowatts, down 318,300 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 88,975,860 pieces, down 14,424,120 pieces; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 11,095,900 pieces, down 1,002,590 pieces; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.31 US dollars/piece, down 0.01 US dollars/piece; the weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 27.86, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - On August 13, Liu Bing, a member of the Party Group and Deputy Director of the Jiangxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission, introduced that the development of non - fossil energy in Jiangxi is rapid. The new energy installed capacity has increased by 1.6 times compared with the end of 2020. Wind and photovoltaic installed capacity has exceeded thermal power and become one of the main power sources in Jiangxi. The number of county - level regions connected to long - distance pipeline natural gas has increased by 42 compared with 2020, basically achieving full coverage of 100 counties (cities, districts) [2]