瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250814

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, domestically, high oil - mill operating rates and soybean meal inventory accumulation suppress prices, but uncertain fourth - quarter purchases support the forward market. Near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, and the peak aquaculture season boosts demand. The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weaken forward supply, while the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens demand expectations. The market remains bullish despite price drops and increased volatility [2]. - For rapeseed oil, internationally, good weather in Canada boosts production prospects, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian imports may pressure prices. The MPOB report and Indonesia's bio - diesel policy affect palm oil prices. Domestically, the off - season of fat consumption and sufficient supply restrict prices, but low oil - mill operating rates, fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed reduce supply pressure. The market should be participated in with a bullish view despite price drops and increased volatility [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil was 9840 yuan/ton (down 224 yuan), rapeseed meal was 2686 yuan/ton (down 37 yuan), ICE rapeseed was 660.3 CAD/ton (up 9.6 CAD), and domestic rapeseed was 5044 yuan/ton (down 92 yuan) [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) was 184 yuan/ton (down 44 yuan), and rapeseed meal (1 - 5) was 83 yuan/ton (down 29 yuan) [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil had 301,480 lots (up 18,815 lots), and rapeseed meal had 115,197 lots (down 63,472 lots) [2]. - Top 20 net long positions: Rapeseed oil had 15,064 lots (up 850 lots), and rapeseed meal had 14,580 lots (down 2,813 lots) [2]. - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil had 3,487 sheets, and rapeseed meal had 9,821 sheets [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,260 yuan/ton (up 500 yuan), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,600 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5,700 yuan/ton (down 300 yuan), and the oil - meal ratio was 3.79 (up 0.06) [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil was 10,325 yuan/ton (up 500 yuan), and the import cost of rapeseed was 8,216.19 yuan/ton (up 3,559.36 yuan) [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 196 yuan/ton (up 238 yuan), and rapeseed meal main contract basis was - 86 yuan/ton (down 23 yuan) [2]. - Substitute prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,840 yuan/ton, palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 9,380 yuan/ton, and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,090 yuan/ton. The rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1,420 yuan/ton (up 330 yuan), the rapeseed - palm oil spread was 880 yuan/ton (up 380 yuan), and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 490 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan) [2]. Upstream Situation - Global production: Rapeseed production was forecasted at 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), and the annual forecast for rapeseed was 12,378 thousand tons [2]. - Imports: Rapeseed imports were 18.45 tons (down 15.1 tons), rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports were 15 tons (up 4 tons), and rapeseed meal imports were 27.03 tons (up 7.56 tons) [2]. - Inventory and operating rates: Rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 15 tons (up 5 tons), and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 16.84% (up 0.32%) [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 11 tons (up 0.35 tons), coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 3.2 tons (up 0.5 tons), East China rapeseed oil inventory was 54.92 tons (down 0.58 tons), East China rapeseed meal inventory was 33.25 tons (up 0.68 tons), Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 5.5 tons (down 0.2 tons), and South China rapeseed meal inventory was 21 tons (down 1.5 tons) [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 was 3.47 tons (up 1.77 tons), and rapeseed meal weekly提货量 was 2.72 tons (down 0.15 tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production was 2,937.7 tons (up 175.6 tons), and edible vegetable oil production was 476.9 tons (up 41.8 tons) [2]. - Consumption: The monthly catering revenue was 470.76 billion yuan (up 1.294 billion yuan) [2]. Option Market - Implied volatilities: Rapeseed meal call was 13.22% (down 14.17%), put was 27.39% (down 1.71%), rapeseed oil call was 5.11% (down 14.04%), and put was 19.15% (up 2.5%) [2]. - Historical volatilities: Rapeseed meal 20 - day was 24.96% (up 1.77%), 60 - day was 18.9% (up 0.71%), rapeseed oil 20 - day was 16.4% (up 2.5%), and 60 - day was 13.95% (up 1.06%) [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures rebounded as US soybean and soybean oil futures rose. The November contract closed 9.50 CAD higher at 659.80 CAD/ton, and the January contract rose 9.70 CAD to 672.80 CAD/ton [2]. - The USDA August report showed that US 2025/26 soybean harvest area was estimated at 80.1 million acres (down from 82.5 million acres in July), yield was 53.6 bushels/acre (higher than expected), production was 4.292 billion bushels (down from July), and ending stocks were 290 million bushels (down 20 million bushels) [2]. Key Points to Watch - Monday's rapeseed operating rate and regional rapeseed oil and meal inventories from Myagric, as well as China - Canada and Canada - US trade disputes [3]