瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20250814

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, the "hard economic data" shows signs of weakness, combined with a significant increase in interest - rate cut expectations. The US dollar index maintains a weak and volatile pattern, which is beneficial for gold prices. However, if the subsequent US - Russia negotiations make substantial progress, it may relieve the downward pressure on gold prices. The industrial nature of silver may be boosted by both interest - rate cuts and the easing of geopolitical tensions, and silver prices may remain relatively resilient. It is recommended to focus on the US July PPI producer inflation and last week's unemployment benefit claims data to be released tonight. A moderate PPI may strengthen the Fed's dovish interest - rate cut expectations, thereby supporting precious metal prices. For trading, try to go long at low levels in the short term and maintain a long - term low - level layout strategy, while paying attention to risk control. The focus range for the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract is 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract is 9200 - 9400 yuan/kilogram [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 778.7 yuan/gram, up 0.98; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 9286 yuan/kilogram, down 14. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 199,577 hands, down 1900; those of Shanghai Silver are 366,680 hands, up 1347. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract are 163,500 hands, down 2367; those of Shanghai Silver are 118,970 hands, up 1215. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 36,345 kilograms, up 300; that of silver is 1,150,782 kilograms, up 15,684 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 774.6 yuan/gram, up 0.9; the spot price of silver is 9308 yuan/kilogram, up 108. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 4.1 yuan/gram, down 0.08; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 22 yuan/kilogram, up 122 [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings are 964.22 tons, unchanged; the silver ETF holdings are 15,099.56 tons, unchanged. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 237,050 contracts, up 13,454; those of silver are 50,658 contracts, down 8749. The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84; the total supply of silver in the year is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4. The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83; the global total demand for silver in the year is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 [2] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 10.88%, down 0.1; the 40 - day historical volatility is 10.96%, up 0.02. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 18.57%, down 0.11; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 18.57%, down 0.11 [2] 3.5 Industry News - A source said that US President Trump will propose to Putin during the Russia - US summit to jointly develop rare - earth mineral resources in Alaska and lift the export ban on Russian aircraft parts. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that if the meeting between Trump and Putin goes poorly, the US may increase sanctions on Russia or impose secondary tariffs. The US Department of Energy announced actions to ensure the security of the US critical mineral and material supply chain and allocated $1 billion for mineral security. Bessent issued the clearest call for interest - rate cuts by the US government so far, asking the Fed to immediately start a new round of interest - rate cuts and stating that US interest rates should be 150 to 175 basis points lower than the current level. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 0%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 94.3%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 5.7%. In October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 31.8%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 64.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 3.8%. During the Asian session, the US dollar index rebounded slightly, and the prices of gold and silver in the Shanghai market fluctuated weakly. The overall growth rate of the US CPI in July was relatively moderate. Combined with the previously significantly weak non - farm payrolls report and PMI indicators, the expectation of a slowdown in the US economy has been strengthened. The probability of a Fed interest - rate cut in September remains high, which strongly supports the prices of gold and silver. However, the expectation of US - Russia negotiations intensifies the long - short game in the precious metals market, and there may be short - term downward pressure. Bessent's repeated calls for an emergency interest - rate cut by the Fed and the continuous obstruction of the Fed's independence have increased the marginal risk - aversion sentiment. However, considering the combination of tariffs and fiscal stimulus plans, the feasibility of an interest - rate cut greater than 25 basis points is low and the risk is high [2]