瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250814

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Next week, the arrival of foreign vessels at ports will remain high, and downstream demand will remain weak. It is expected that the methanol inventory at ports will continue to accumulate, but the impact of weather factors on the unloading speed needs attention [2]. - After hedging, the olefin industry's开工 rate decreased slightly this week. As the olefin plant of Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin restarts and operates at full capacity, the olefin industry's开工 rate will increase [2]. - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2420 - 2480 in the short term [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread was -95 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan [2]. - The main contract's open interest was 255,572 lots, a decrease of 52,659 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -102,203 lots, a decrease of 465 lots [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts was 11,168, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [2]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan [2]. - The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 269 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 331 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 266 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was -62 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.82 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.04 US dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 68.70 million tons, an increase of 4.50 million tons; the inventory at South China ports was 33.48 million tons, an increase of 5.13 million tons [2]. - The methanol import profit was 45.99 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.7 yuan; the monthly import volume was 1.2202 billion tons, a decrease of 72.1 million tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 295,600 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons; the methanol enterprise's开工 rate was 81.61%, a decrease of 3.75 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde's开工 rate was 41.62%, a decrease of 1.67 percentage points; the dimethyl ether's开工 rate was 5.33%, unchanged [2]. - The acetic acid's开工 rate was 89.24%, a decrease of 2.16 percentage points; the MTBE's开工 rate was 66.62%, a decrease of 1.17 percentage points [2]. - The olefin's开工 rate was 83.89%, a decrease of 1.38 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefin's on - disk profit was -1020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 202 yuan [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 25.39%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 23.27%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 2.06%, a decrease of 12.05 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.11%, a decrease of 1.74 percentage points [2]. Industry News - As of August 13, the total methanol inventory at Chinese ports was 1.0218 billion tons, an increase of 96.3 million tons from the previous period. East and South China ports both saw inventory accumulation [2]. - As of August 13, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 295,600 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons, a 0.64% increase; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 219,400 tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons, an 8.90% decrease [2]. - As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 84.71%, a decrease of 0.41 percentage points [2]. Suggestions - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [2]